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संयुक्त राष्ट्र की चेतावनी- नए साल में फिर मंदी का खतरा, भारत-चीन भी मुश्किल में
संयुक्त राष्ट्र. संयुक्त राष्ट्र ने चेतावनी दी है कि दुनिया एक ओर मंदी की मार झेलने के कगार पर पहुंच गई है। संस्था का अनुमान है कि अगले साल यानी 2012 में वैश्विक स्तर पर विकास दर में और गिरावट आएगी और इसका असर भारत और चीन जैसी बड़ी अर्थव्यवस्थाओं पर भी पड़ेगा। यूएन के मुताबिक पिछली बार चीन और भारत ने मंदी से उबरने में दुनिया की मदद की थी लेकिन इस बार इनकी भी हालत खस्ता हो जाएगी।
‘वर्ल्ड इकोनॉमिक सिचुएशन एंड प्रॉस्पेक्ट्स 2012’ शीर्षक से जारी रिपोर्ट में कहा गया है कि अगले साल दुनिया की विकास दर 2.6 फीसदी तक गिर जाएगी जो 2010 में चार फीसदी थी।
रिपोर्ट में कहा गया है कि साल 2012 दुनिया की अर्थव्यवस्था के लिए बेहद अहम साबित होगा। अगले साल बाजार के क्षेत्र में बेहद असमंजस की स्थिति बनी रहेगी और विकास दर धीमी रहेगी।
रिपोर्ट के मुताबिक, ‘वैश्विक आर्थिक मंदी की मार से दुनिया अभी तक पूरी तरह उबरी ही नहीं कि एक और मंदी (डबल डिप रिसेशन) का खतरा मंडराने लगा है।’
खतरनाक संकेत: अमेरिका में और बढ़ी कंगाली, ब्रिटेन में भी बदतर हालात का खतरा
वॉशिंगटन/लंदन. अमेरिका और यूरोप की लगातार बदहाल होती आर्थिक तस्वीर के चौंकाने वाले नतीजे लगातार सामने आ रहे हैं। अमेरिका में बढ़ती बेरोजगारी, गरीबी का आलम यह है कि दुनिया के सबसे ताकतवर और अमीर माने जाने वाले मुल्क में लाखों बच्चे मुफ्त भोजन के सहारे जिंदगी जीने को मजबूर हैं।
पिछले कुछ सालों में खस्ताहाल होती अमेरिकी अर्थव्यवस्था का असर अब वहां के समाज पर सीधे तौर पर देखा जा रहा है। अमेरिका में ऐसे बच्चों की तादाद लगातार बढ़ती जा रही है जो स्कूलों में मुफ्त या सस्ते भोजन से गुजारा कर रहे हैं। इनमें से ऐसे कई बच्चे उन घरों से आते हैं जो कुछ साल पहले तक मध्य वर्ग से ताल्लुक रखते थे। लेकिन पिछले कुछ सालों में आर्थिक संकट के चलते उनके माता-पिता को अपनी नौकरी या घर गंवाना पड़ा है।
अमेरिका के कृषि विभाग के आंकड़ों के मुताबिक 2006-7 में जहां मुफ्त या सस्ता भोजन लेने वाले बच्चों की तादाद 1.8 करोड़ थी वहीं अब यह आंकड़ा बढ़कर 2.1 करोड़ हो गया है। मतलब है पिछले चार सालों में ऐसे बच्चों की तादाद में 17 फीसदी का उछाल। अमेरिका के 11 राज्यों में पिछले चार सालों में यह आंकड़ा 25 फीसदी या इससे ज़्यादा बढ़ा है। इन राज्यों में फ्लोरिडा, न्यू जर्सी, टेनेसी और नेवादा शामिल हैं।
वहीं, अमेरिका में सख्त पुलिसिया कार्रवाई के बावजूद कॉरपोरेट जगत में फैले भ्रष्टाचार और गलत आर्थिक नीतियों के खिलाफ 'ऑकुपाई वॉल स्ट्रीट' आंदोलन नहीं थम रहा है। सितंबर से हुए आंदोलन में अब तक सैकड़ों प्रदर्शनकारियों को गिरफ्तार किया गया है। ताज़ा पुलिसिया कार्रवाई में लॉस एंजिलिस और फिलाडेल्फिया में करीब 350 प्रदर्शनकारियों को हिरासत में ले लिया। पिछले कुछ हफ्तों में अमेरिका में पुलिस डलास, न्यू ऑरलियंस, ओकलैंड, पोर्टलैंड और न्यूयॉर्क में ऑकुपाई वॉल स्ट्रीट आंदोलन के प्रदर्शनकारियों के शिविर उखाड़ कर फेंक रही है। लेकिन बावजूद इसके प्रदर्शनकारी झुकने को तैयार नहीं है। उन्होंने 12 दिसंबर को अमेरिका के पश्चिमी तट और कनाडा के प्रशांत महासागर के सीबोर्ड पर मौजूद सभी बंदरगाहों को बंद करने का ऐलान किया है।
दूसरी तरफ, बढ़ती महंगाई, तनख्वाहों के लंबे समय तक रुकने और कटौती के चलते ब्रिटेन के निवासियों की खर्च की क्षमता में अगले कुछ सालों में जबर्दस्त गिरावट का अंदेशा जताया गया है। इंस्टीट्यूट फॉर फिस्कल स्टडीज (आईएफएस) के विश्लेषण के मुताबिक ब्रिटेन में औसत आमदनी में इस साल 3 फीसदी की गिरावट दर्ज की जाएगी जो 2012 में और गिरेगी। यही वजह है कि ब्रिटेन में सरकारी नियमों में हो रहे बदलावों के खिलाफ लोग सड़कों पर उतर रहे हैं। पेंशन नीति में बदलाव के खिलाफ सार्वजनिक क्षेत्र के करीब 20 लाख कर्मचारियों ने विरोध प्रदर्शन किया है। आईएफएस ने चेतावनी दी है कि 2016 में उन परिवारों की हालत 14 साल पहले की तुलना में बहुत ज़्यादा खराब होगी जहां बच्चे हैं।
Thursday, December 1, 2011
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
दो अरब डॉलर के सोने की बिक्री से मंदी के संकेत
सोने में तेजी के दिन लद चुके हैं या फिर इसकी बिक्री के पीछे कोई दूसरी खास वजह है। लेकिन करीब दो अरब डॉलर मूल्य के सोने की बिक्री ने अंतरराष्ट्रीय बाजार में सनसनी ला दी है। दुनिया के बड़े हेज फंड मैनेजर और लंबे अरसे से तेजडिय़ा रहे जॉन पॉल्सन ने तीसरी तिमाही में अपनी सोने की होल्डिंग एक तिहाई घटा दी है। उसने करीब दो अरब डॉलर के सोने की बिक्री की है। इससे सोने के वैश्विक बाजार में तेजी की धारणा प्रभावित हो सकती है।
अमेरिका में रेग्यूलेटरी फाइलिंग के आंकड़ों के मुताबिक पॉल्सन एंड कंपनी ने एसपीडीआर गोल्ड ट्रस्ट में अपनी होल्डिंग घटाकर 203 लाख शेयर की है। दूसरी तिमाही के अंत में उसकी होल्डिंग 315 लाख शेयर की थी। मौजूदा मूल्य के आधार पर पॉल्सन की बिक्री करीब 11 लाख औंस के बराबर है। इसका मूल्य 1.94 अरब डॉलर है। चालू वर्ष के शुरू में अरबपति फाइनेंसर जॉर्ज सोरोस द्वारा सोने में अपना लगभग पूरा हिस्सा (80 करोड़ डॉलर) बेचे के बाद पॉल्सन के पास बुलियन में निवेश काफी ज्यादा हो गया था।
सोरोस ने सोने के मूल्य को अंतिम बुलबुला करार देकर अपना सारा हिस्सा बेच दिया था। उन्होंने अपना सोना 6 सितंबर को 1920.30 डॉलर प्रति औंस का रिकॉर्ड स्तर छूने से पहले बेच दिया था। इसके बाद सोना 26 सितंबर को 1,534.49 डॉलर प्रति औंस का स्तर भी छू गया।
एएनजेड रिसर्च ने एक नोट में कहा है कि अमेरिकी रेग्यूलेटरी में इस फाइलिंग की ओर हर किसी का ध्यान जाएगा और सोने में मंदी आने की उम्मीद बनेगी। नोट में कहा गया है कि वास्तव में सोने की तेजी के दिन लद चुके हैं। लंदन के हाजिर बाजार में मंगलवार को सोना करीब एक फीसदी गिरकर 1762.98 डॉलर प्रति औंस रह गया। हालांकि चालू वर्ष में अब तक इसके दाम करीब 25 फीसदी बढ़ चुके हैं।
पॉल्सन द्वारा सोने की बिक्री के पीछे की वजह अभी तक स्पष्ट नहीं है। एएनजेड के अनुसार संभव है कि पॉल्सन अपनी होल्डिंग को एक्सचेंज ट्रेडेड फंड एसपीडीआर से शिफ्ट करके हाजिर होल्डिंग में लाए। इस कदम से वह एसपीडीआर की मैनेजमेंट फीस से बचत कर सकता है। हमें संदेह है कि पॉल्सन का सोने के प्रति लगाव खत्म हो रहा है।
बैंक ऑफ अमेरिका और हैलिट पैकर्ड जैसे शेयरों में सितंबर के अंत में गिरावट आने से पॉल्सन एडवांटेज प्लस फंड की वैल्यू करीब आधी घट चुकी है। ऐसे में हो सकता है कि उसने रिडीम्शन (पैसा निकालने) के लिए सोने की बिक्री की हो। पॉल्सन करेंसी रिस्क की हेजिंग के लिए एसपीडीआर होल्डिंग का इस्तेमाल करती है। उसने इस महीने के शुरू में कहा था कि उसकी कुल फंड वैल्यू में करीब आठ फीसदी के रिडीम्शन आवेदन मिले हैं। उसके फंड की कुल वैल्यू करीब 30 अरब डॉलर है।
दो अरब डॉलर के सोने की बिक्री से मंदी के संकेत
सोने में तेजी के दिन लद चुके हैं या फिर इसकी बिक्री के पीछे कोई दूसरी खास वजह है। लेकिन करीब दो अरब डॉलर मूल्य के सोने की बिक्री ने अंतरराष्ट्रीय बाजार में सनसनी ला दी है। दुनिया के बड़े हेज फंड मैनेजर और लंबे अरसे से तेजडिय़ा रहे जॉन पॉल्सन ने तीसरी तिमाही में अपनी सोने की होल्डिंग एक तिहाई घटा दी है। उसने करीब दो अरब डॉलर के सोने की बिक्री की है। इससे सोने के वैश्विक बाजार में तेजी की धारणा प्रभावित हो सकती है।
अमेरिका में रेग्यूलेटरी फाइलिंग के आंकड़ों के मुताबिक पॉल्सन एंड कंपनी ने एसपीडीआर गोल्ड ट्रस्ट में अपनी होल्डिंग घटाकर 203 लाख शेयर की है। दूसरी तिमाही के अंत में उसकी होल्डिंग 315 लाख शेयर की थी। मौजूदा मूल्य के आधार पर पॉल्सन की बिक्री करीब 11 लाख औंस के बराबर है। इसका मूल्य 1.94 अरब डॉलर है। चालू वर्ष के शुरू में अरबपति फाइनेंसर जॉर्ज सोरोस द्वारा सोने में अपना लगभग पूरा हिस्सा (80 करोड़ डॉलर) बेचे के बाद पॉल्सन के पास बुलियन में निवेश काफी ज्यादा हो गया था।
सोरोस ने सोने के मूल्य को अंतिम बुलबुला करार देकर अपना सारा हिस्सा बेच दिया था। उन्होंने अपना सोना 6 सितंबर को 1920.30 डॉलर प्रति औंस का रिकॉर्ड स्तर छूने से पहले बेच दिया था। इसके बाद सोना 26 सितंबर को 1,534.49 डॉलर प्रति औंस का स्तर भी छू गया।
एएनजेड रिसर्च ने एक नोट में कहा है कि अमेरिकी रेग्यूलेटरी में इस फाइलिंग की ओर हर किसी का ध्यान जाएगा और सोने में मंदी आने की उम्मीद बनेगी। नोट में कहा गया है कि वास्तव में सोने की तेजी के दिन लद चुके हैं। लंदन के हाजिर बाजार में मंगलवार को सोना करीब एक फीसदी गिरकर 1762.98 डॉलर प्रति औंस रह गया। हालांकि चालू वर्ष में अब तक इसके दाम करीब 25 फीसदी बढ़ चुके हैं।
पॉल्सन द्वारा सोने की बिक्री के पीछे की वजह अभी तक स्पष्ट नहीं है। एएनजेड के अनुसार संभव है कि पॉल्सन अपनी होल्डिंग को एक्सचेंज ट्रेडेड फंड एसपीडीआर से शिफ्ट करके हाजिर होल्डिंग में लाए। इस कदम से वह एसपीडीआर की मैनेजमेंट फीस से बचत कर सकता है। हमें संदेह है कि पॉल्सन का सोने के प्रति लगाव खत्म हो रहा है।
बैंक ऑफ अमेरिका और हैलिट पैकर्ड जैसे शेयरों में सितंबर के अंत में गिरावट आने से पॉल्सन एडवांटेज प्लस फंड की वैल्यू करीब आधी घट चुकी है। ऐसे में हो सकता है कि उसने रिडीम्शन (पैसा निकालने) के लिए सोने की बिक्री की हो। पॉल्सन करेंसी रिस्क की हेजिंग के लिए एसपीडीआर होल्डिंग का इस्तेमाल करती है। उसने इस महीने के शुरू में कहा था कि उसकी कुल फंड वैल्यू में करीब आठ फीसदी के रिडीम्शन आवेदन मिले हैं। उसके फंड की कुल वैल्यू करीब 30 अरब डॉलर है।
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
मंदी में घिर सकता है देश: प्रधानमंत्री
22 नवंबर 2011
सीएनबीसी आवाज़
प्रधानमंत्री मनमोहन सिंह ने चेतावनी दी कि अगर इकोनॉमी को संभालने के लिए तुरंत कदम नहीं उठाए गए तो देश गंभीर आर्थिक संकट में फंस जाएगा।
प्रधानमंत्री मनमोहन सिंह ने इकोनॉमी के लिए कारगर कदम उठाने के लिए संसद को चलने देने और फैसले लेने में सरकार की मदद करने की अपील की।
वहीं वित्त मंत्री प्रणव मुखर्जी ने कहा है कि रुपये में तेज गिरावट की वजह ग्लोबल अनिश्चितता है। इस अनिश्चितता और एफआईआई के पैसे निकालने का दबाव रुपये पर पड़ रहा है और इस वजह से रुपया तेजी से गिरा है।
वित्त मंत्री ने ये भी कहा कि इस गिरावट पर रिजर्व बैंक की नजर बनी हुई है। हालांकि मौजूदा स्थिति में आरबीआई के कदम उठाने से भी रुपये को सहारा नहीं मिलेगा।
आरबीआई गवर्नर डी सुब्बाराव ने कहा है कि समय आने पर आरबीआई रुपये को गिरने से रोकने के लिए दखल दे सकता है, हालांकि वो ये नहीं बता सकते कि आरबीआई ऐसा कब करेगा। आरबीआई के डिप्टी गवर्नर सुबीर गोकर्ण के मुताबिक रुपये की कीमत बाजार के मुताबिक तय हो रही है।
सुबीर गोकर्ण ने कहा कि चिंता, रुपये में उतार-चढ़ाव से नहीं बल्कि तेज गिरावट से है। रुपये की कमजोरी चिंताजनतक है क्योंकि इससे इंपोर्ट महंगा रहा है, लेकिन अभी रुपये में दखलंदाजी करने का सही वक्त नहीं आया है।
रुपया टूट रहा लेकिन सरकार हड़बड़ी में कोई कदम नहीं उठाएगी। सुबीर गोकर्ण ने कहा कि रुपये की कमजोरी से महंगाई दर पर असर पड़ सकता है लेकिन सरकार कोई भी मध्यम अवधि को ध्यान में रखकर कदम उठाएगी।
मंदी में घिर सकता है देश: प्रधानमंत्री
22 नवंबर 2011
सीएनबीसी आवाज़
प्रधानमंत्री मनमोहन सिंह ने चेतावनी दी कि अगर इकोनॉमी को संभालने के लिए तुरंत कदम नहीं उठाए गए तो देश गंभीर आर्थिक संकट में फंस जाएगा।
प्रधानमंत्री मनमोहन सिंह ने इकोनॉमी के लिए कारगर कदम उठाने के लिए संसद को चलने देने और फैसले लेने में सरकार की मदद करने की अपील की।
वहीं वित्त मंत्री प्रणव मुखर्जी ने कहा है कि रुपये में तेज गिरावट की वजह ग्लोबल अनिश्चितता है। इस अनिश्चितता और एफआईआई के पैसे निकालने का दबाव रुपये पर पड़ रहा है और इस वजह से रुपया तेजी से गिरा है।
वित्त मंत्री ने ये भी कहा कि इस गिरावट पर रिजर्व बैंक की नजर बनी हुई है। हालांकि मौजूदा स्थिति में आरबीआई के कदम उठाने से भी रुपये को सहारा नहीं मिलेगा।
आरबीआई गवर्नर डी सुब्बाराव ने कहा है कि समय आने पर आरबीआई रुपये को गिरने से रोकने के लिए दखल दे सकता है, हालांकि वो ये नहीं बता सकते कि आरबीआई ऐसा कब करेगा। आरबीआई के डिप्टी गवर्नर सुबीर गोकर्ण के मुताबिक रुपये की कीमत बाजार के मुताबिक तय हो रही है।
सुबीर गोकर्ण ने कहा कि चिंता, रुपये में उतार-चढ़ाव से नहीं बल्कि तेज गिरावट से है। रुपये की कमजोरी चिंताजनतक है क्योंकि इससे इंपोर्ट महंगा रहा है, लेकिन अभी रुपये में दखलंदाजी करने का सही वक्त नहीं आया है।
रुपया टूट रहा लेकिन सरकार हड़बड़ी में कोई कदम नहीं उठाएगी। सुबीर गोकर्ण ने कहा कि रुपये की कमजोरी से महंगाई दर पर असर पड़ सकता है लेकिन सरकार कोई भी मध्यम अवधि को ध्यान में रखकर कदम उठाएगी।
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
Stay out, a further crash is coming: Baliga
Ambareesh Baliga, chief operating officer of Way2Wealth joins CNBC-TV18 to give his outlook of the market today. He advises staying out of the market now. "If Nifty breaks 4700, then we could easily see it breaking another 400-500 points," he says.
He also comments on the midcap space and certain stocks.
Below is the edited transcript of the interview. Also watch the accompanying video.
Q: Do you think Nifty is going to break 4700 this time or do you expect 4800 support to hold out through the November-December series?
A: That is the most important level which we need to wait and watch out for because if you look at stocks individually, quite a few are quoting the indices at 3500 levels, not even 4200 levels. So 4700 is going to be just a psychological level, but it’s an important level to watch out for. If that is broken, then we could easily see Nifty breaking another 400-500 points. That is one of the reasons why I have been saying that for the last 10 days surely its time to stay out. This is not the time to venture out and start buying because you have individual stocks really crashing down. In just about two-three days, we see stocks crashing 20-30%. So it doesn’t really make sense putting fresh cash at this point of time because clearly, rupee is the biggest worry right now.
Q: If it gets to that 4700 level, would you recommend for clients to start buying because nine times out of ten, December has been a month of positive returns for the market, is it different this time?
A: I really don’t know whether it will be different this time because October again was different than what people thought really in the beginning. They said that it could be a bad month, but it turned out to be a decently good month. So let us not speculate as to whether it would hold at 4700 levels or not. I think we just need to wait and watch out. If you are not doing anything in the market, it is best to just wait and watch for those levels. However, if 4700 holds and we see a decent bounce back from there and it consolidates at those higher levels, only after that I will say possibly it’s time to venture out. Till then stay out.
Q: What is happening with all those consumer stories like VIP , Titan , Jubilant Foodworks ?
A: I think these are the only stocks where people are making some money as far as midcaps are concerned. The issue is that some of these stocks have marquee investors, they have those large institutional investments and even some amount of selling coming in from those quarters that can actually break the price. So people are trying to book out before those large investors try and exit.
Q: What are you telling your clients to do on this beaten midcaps, do you see them falling disproportionately more compared to large caps as they have in the last fortnight?
A: In fact in the past six-seven months, we have been telling our clients to buy selectively because whenever we have bought all those major downtick base, we have seen a decent bounce back and we have been able to sell partially at those higher levels. But over the past ten days, I have been telling my clients to stay out because looking at those situation which is quite fluid, it doesn’t make sense being brave and venturing out and buying at this point of time. We don’t know which stock is going to crack next. We are not talking of fundamentals, we are talking of the technical reasons for some of these stocks to crash. So best is to say out.
However, most of the midcaps which have crashed in the recent past two-three months are looking extremely attractive now. Although it may look good today, I will not be surprised if it will look more attractive tomorrow, so it doesn’t make sense buying right now.
Q: What did you make of the news on Pipavav and what would you tell your investors to do there?
A: I would say it is only an announcement because of which we saw that 5-6% bump up yesterday. I would decide once the money really comes in. That is the time we should take a call, not now.
Q: What about Suzlon ?
A: Suzlon anyway is more or less a dead stock as of now, and finally when the promoters themselves have sold off at Rs 25, it doesn’t make sense buying even at Rs 20-21 levels. Whatever you see could be a small bounce back of Rs 2-3. I think the bigger story is lost for now.
Stay out, a further crash is coming: Baliga
Ambareesh Baliga, chief operating officer of Way2Wealth joins CNBC-TV18 to give his outlook of the market today. He advises staying out of the market now. "If Nifty breaks 4700, then we could easily see it breaking another 400-500 points," he says.
He also comments on the midcap space and certain stocks.
Below is the edited transcript of the interview. Also watch the accompanying video.
Q: Do you think Nifty is going to break 4700 this time or do you expect 4800 support to hold out through the November-December series?
A: That is the most important level which we need to wait and watch out for because if you look at stocks individually, quite a few are quoting the indices at 3500 levels, not even 4200 levels. So 4700 is going to be just a psychological level, but it’s an important level to watch out for. If that is broken, then we could easily see Nifty breaking another 400-500 points. That is one of the reasons why I have been saying that for the last 10 days surely its time to stay out. This is not the time to venture out and start buying because you have individual stocks really crashing down. In just about two-three days, we see stocks crashing 20-30%. So it doesn’t really make sense putting fresh cash at this point of time because clearly, rupee is the biggest worry right now.
Q: If it gets to that 4700 level, would you recommend for clients to start buying because nine times out of ten, December has been a month of positive returns for the market, is it different this time?
A: I really don’t know whether it will be different this time because October again was different than what people thought really in the beginning. They said that it could be a bad month, but it turned out to be a decently good month. So let us not speculate as to whether it would hold at 4700 levels or not. I think we just need to wait and watch out. If you are not doing anything in the market, it is best to just wait and watch for those levels. However, if 4700 holds and we see a decent bounce back from there and it consolidates at those higher levels, only after that I will say possibly it’s time to venture out. Till then stay out.
Q: What is happening with all those consumer stories like VIP , Titan , Jubilant Foodworks ?
A: I think these are the only stocks where people are making some money as far as midcaps are concerned. The issue is that some of these stocks have marquee investors, they have those large institutional investments and even some amount of selling coming in from those quarters that can actually break the price. So people are trying to book out before those large investors try and exit.
Q: What are you telling your clients to do on this beaten midcaps, do you see them falling disproportionately more compared to large caps as they have in the last fortnight?
A: In fact in the past six-seven months, we have been telling our clients to buy selectively because whenever we have bought all those major downtick base, we have seen a decent bounce back and we have been able to sell partially at those higher levels. But over the past ten days, I have been telling my clients to stay out because looking at those situation which is quite fluid, it doesn’t make sense being brave and venturing out and buying at this point of time. We don’t know which stock is going to crack next. We are not talking of fundamentals, we are talking of the technical reasons for some of these stocks to crash. So best is to say out.
However, most of the midcaps which have crashed in the recent past two-three months are looking extremely attractive now. Although it may look good today, I will not be surprised if it will look more attractive tomorrow, so it doesn’t make sense buying right now.
Q: What did you make of the news on Pipavav and what would you tell your investors to do there?
A: I would say it is only an announcement because of which we saw that 5-6% bump up yesterday. I would decide once the money really comes in. That is the time we should take a call, not now.
Q: What about Suzlon ?
A: Suzlon anyway is more or less a dead stock as of now, and finally when the promoters themselves have sold off at Rs 25, it doesn’t make sense buying even at Rs 20-21 levels. Whatever you see could be a small bounce back of Rs 2-3. I think the bigger story is lost for now.
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
Market can go down 20% more; surprised by Re slide: UBS
"The rupee free fall has caught market by surprise," said Suresh Mahadevan, managing director and head of Indian equities at UBS Securities. As the rupee stands at its all-time dollar low, with the currency vulnerability adding to the fears over the global volatility, Mahadevan says the instability in the market is most likely to stay for over the next few months.
"The Indian market is the worst performing, globally. The market is moving towards a final leg of capitulation and on a worst case scenario there could be a 20% downside from current levels," Mahadevan cautioned.
In an interview to CNBC-TV18, he held that the negative earnings momentum and the weak sentiment are likely to be an overhang.
Meanwhile, he also said that he expects telecom as a sector to outperform. "I like both Bharti and Idea for long term view," he added. On the other sector picks, Mahadevan prefers M&M and Hero Honda from autos, Godrej Consumers among the FMCG counters at current levels and Mannapuram Finance from the gold finance companies. "Coal India too looks attractive at these levels," he further added.
However, he sees a downside risk in HUL, although said that it is priced to perfection at this point in time. Also, he picks Titan as a good long term bet, although not at the current levels.
Market can go down 20% more; surprised by Re slide: UBS
"The rupee free fall has caught market by surprise," said Suresh Mahadevan, managing director and head of Indian equities at UBS Securities. As the rupee stands at its all-time dollar low, with the currency vulnerability adding to the fears over the global volatility, Mahadevan says the instability in the market is most likely to stay for over the next few months.
"The Indian market is the worst performing, globally. The market is moving towards a final leg of capitulation and on a worst case scenario there could be a 20% downside from current levels," Mahadevan cautioned.
In an interview to CNBC-TV18, he held that the negative earnings momentum and the weak sentiment are likely to be an overhang.
Meanwhile, he also said that he expects telecom as a sector to outperform. "I like both Bharti and Idea for long term view," he added. On the other sector picks, Mahadevan prefers M&M and Hero Honda from autos, Godrej Consumers among the FMCG counters at current levels and Mannapuram Finance from the gold finance companies. "Coal India too looks attractive at these levels," he further added.
However, he sees a downside risk in HUL, although said that it is priced to perfection at this point in time. Also, he picks Titan as a good long term bet, although not at the current levels.
Monday, November 21, 2011
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
Don't cross fingers for pullback rally: Violet Arch Cap
Even though the market started off on a positive note, Mithil Pradhan of Violet Arch Capital Advisors is not expecting to see a pullback rally. Instead, he tells CNBC-TV18 that the daily charts of the Nifty suggest a downside to 4600 levels.
“The only thing that is playing out in favour of the Nifty at this point of time is the sentiment indicators,” he says. Based on that, he thinks the best case scenario is a rally from current levels to 4920 initially or 4956-4985 maximum.
Pradhan goes on to say that this is not the time to short stocks. “Wait for a day or two and then look at buying dips, especially in banks and metals,” he advices.
Below is an edited transcript of his interview with Udayan Mukherjee and Mitali Mukherjee. Also watch the accompanying video.
Q: What is it looking like, are you playing for a pullback on the Nifty or do you expect more downside?
A: I am not the kind of a trader who would play for a pullback in a particular bear market, because things are not really looking good. Two days back we had the CRB Index completing its bear market rally, we have a channel on the Nifty daily charts which suggest a down side to at least 4600 levels and we have a weekly overbought momentum on Nifty.
Right now, the only thing that is playing out in favour of Nifty is our sentiment indicators - the volume put call ratio and the arms index, which are moving into an extreme right now and signal a reversal. So the best case scenario from current levels is that we can rally from 4920 initially to 4956-4985 maximum, which is where it should fizzle out. So I am not playing for a pullback right now.
Q: How carefully are you tracking the Bank Nifty and are you seeing signs of a further breakdown over there?
A: I wouldn’t call this breakdown but incidentally, we are already short on Bank Nifty at much higher levels. What I feel is that there are three bottoms which are extending on the downside. I think 8200- 8250 is the level where people would like to cover shorts and a healthy bounce back can occur from that level.
But if you look at individual stocks like Bank of Baroda , Federal Bank , Axis Bank and SBI , the charts of these stocks are not looking fine, so playing for a pullback is looking difficult in this case.
Q: There has been relentless pressure on the metals. Do you see the possibility of a pullback there or would you still be bearish with trades on names like Sail and Sesa Goa?
A: Lot of these momentum stocks like the metals index, Tata Steel , Sesa Goa , Hindalco and I would say the entire midcap index and the smallcap index form running corrections on daily charts, and running corrections are one of the most ferocious patterns that I have experienced.
The BSE metal index does have a support at 9961-9738 and if these levels hold on then you can possibly look at a rally of at least 10-12% as a rebound. But I really feel the chances are very less. Look at these stock counters, Tata Steel has an amazing support at Rs 360 but it is still about 5-6% away from that particular level. So I am not very sure whether this level should hold on, but 9961-9738 is what traders should now look at.
Q: How are you calling the next series because on that as well there is a fair amount of trepidation on the fact that December is probably seeing even lower levels for the index?
A: I have done a particular study and I have found out that November and December are usually the best months of the entire calendar year. But then the market is becoming so funny nowadays. October, which was supposed to be the worst month, did not produce any negative returns, but we are already down in double digits in November. So I will not use seasonality in predicting this particular market at this point of time.
The way I am playing this is simple, I am looking at the dollar-rupee that you are tracking right now. I see a double top created at the 52 levels; there is a nominal breach of this particular level between yesterday and today, but we are not yet confirmed whether this breakout is a true breakout. So I would rather wait for a day or two, look whether dollar-rupee moves below 52 again.
At the same time, we are reaching 4700 levels on Nifty, we are reaching an important level on metals index and we are about 300 points away on the Bank Nifty. So over and over, I see a lot of supports which are of prime significance for bullish traders. So at this point of time, shorting is a complete no-no. It is best to wait for a day or two and then look at buying dips, especially in the sectors that I discussed right now.
Don't cross fingers for pullback rally: Violet Arch Cap
Even though the market started off on a positive note, Mithil Pradhan of Violet Arch Capital Advisors is not expecting to see a pullback rally. Instead, he tells CNBC-TV18 that the daily charts of the Nifty suggest a downside to 4600 levels.
“The only thing that is playing out in favour of the Nifty at this point of time is the sentiment indicators,” he says. Based on that, he thinks the best case scenario is a rally from current levels to 4920 initially or 4956-4985 maximum.
Pradhan goes on to say that this is not the time to short stocks. “Wait for a day or two and then look at buying dips, especially in banks and metals,” he advices.
Below is an edited transcript of his interview with Udayan Mukherjee and Mitali Mukherjee. Also watch the accompanying video.
Q: What is it looking like, are you playing for a pullback on the Nifty or do you expect more downside?
A: I am not the kind of a trader who would play for a pullback in a particular bear market, because things are not really looking good. Two days back we had the CRB Index completing its bear market rally, we have a channel on the Nifty daily charts which suggest a down side to at least 4600 levels and we have a weekly overbought momentum on Nifty.
Right now, the only thing that is playing out in favour of Nifty is our sentiment indicators - the volume put call ratio and the arms index, which are moving into an extreme right now and signal a reversal. So the best case scenario from current levels is that we can rally from 4920 initially to 4956-4985 maximum, which is where it should fizzle out. So I am not playing for a pullback right now.
Q: How carefully are you tracking the Bank Nifty and are you seeing signs of a further breakdown over there?
A: I wouldn’t call this breakdown but incidentally, we are already short on Bank Nifty at much higher levels. What I feel is that there are three bottoms which are extending on the downside. I think 8200- 8250 is the level where people would like to cover shorts and a healthy bounce back can occur from that level.
But if you look at individual stocks like Bank of Baroda , Federal Bank , Axis Bank and SBI , the charts of these stocks are not looking fine, so playing for a pullback is looking difficult in this case.
Q: There has been relentless pressure on the metals. Do you see the possibility of a pullback there or would you still be bearish with trades on names like Sail and Sesa Goa?
A: Lot of these momentum stocks like the metals index, Tata Steel , Sesa Goa , Hindalco and I would say the entire midcap index and the smallcap index form running corrections on daily charts, and running corrections are one of the most ferocious patterns that I have experienced.
The BSE metal index does have a support at 9961-9738 and if these levels hold on then you can possibly look at a rally of at least 10-12% as a rebound. But I really feel the chances are very less. Look at these stock counters, Tata Steel has an amazing support at Rs 360 but it is still about 5-6% away from that particular level. So I am not very sure whether this level should hold on, but 9961-9738 is what traders should now look at.
Q: How are you calling the next series because on that as well there is a fair amount of trepidation on the fact that December is probably seeing even lower levels for the index?
A: I have done a particular study and I have found out that November and December are usually the best months of the entire calendar year. But then the market is becoming so funny nowadays. October, which was supposed to be the worst month, did not produce any negative returns, but we are already down in double digits in November. So I will not use seasonality in predicting this particular market at this point of time.
The way I am playing this is simple, I am looking at the dollar-rupee that you are tracking right now. I see a double top created at the 52 levels; there is a nominal breach of this particular level between yesterday and today, but we are not yet confirmed whether this breakout is a true breakout. So I would rather wait for a day or two, look whether dollar-rupee moves below 52 again.
At the same time, we are reaching 4700 levels on Nifty, we are reaching an important level on metals index and we are about 300 points away on the Bank Nifty. So over and over, I see a lot of supports which are of prime significance for bullish traders. So at this point of time, shorting is a complete no-no. It is best to wait for a day or two and then look at buying dips, especially in the sectors that I discussed right now.
Sunday, November 13, 2011
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
Business Tips
1. Here's a sales mantra. Find out whom your would-be clients hate. That knowledge can help you push them towards your deal, particularly if they are sitting on the fence ready to teeter off to one side or the other.
2. One of the best sales techniques is to ask when can you meet the client and how soon - and then show up.
3. Suggest the same idea to two different key executives in the same company. If you can get them to agree separately that the idea is sound then, when you put them together, a sale is probably going to be the result.
4. Sales presentation made to a large group of people is a different ball game. If you try to sell to more than one person at the same time, you are introducing into the sale the dynamics of their inter-relationships, which can do nothing but detract from your purpose.
5. People in business want to do business with winners. It helps to make your present customers aware of either your own or your company's big wins in the past. Out-and-out bragging is not a very good idea, but it can be done subtly in a million other ways.
6. Here's a negotiation tip. The point of negotiation is to reach an agreement that is mutually advantageous to both parties. To make it a contest of egos can only work against you.
7. Acknowledge the other party's feelings. This is the oldest psychological technique in the world and works just as well in negotiations as it does in any other form of human relations.
8. The pressure to get a deal done can make you say and do things that aren't in your best interest. If the other party knows you have a deadline, they really don't need to know anything else.
9. Time itself - or the passing of it - can also be one of your most valuable negotiating allies. Anxiety and desire to get a deal done breed hyper-kinetic behaviour. There is a natural tendency to speed up the negotiation process rather than to slow it down. Force yourself to resist this urge, and take advantage of it in others.
10. Positioning is the key to a successful product. Always associate your product with positive values - positive home values, positive environment values, or positive values of excellence. Inevitably, these produce positive results.
11. Learn to master what is a conducive sales atmosphere. Just as there is a right time to make a sale there is usually a right place for it as well.
12. A chance encounter at a non-business locale can also present an opportunity. For example, running into a business associate at a beach or tennis club. You can bring up business topics, and follow them up later at office.
13. Never forget this sales mantra: It is so much easier to sell someone what they want to buy than it is to convince them to buy what you are selling.
14. If you are keen on a sales pitch, find out who does the buying. Every company has its system, procedures, and pecking order for making decisions. You should know these, if you want to win a bid.
15. If Edison had gone to business school, we would all be reading by larger candles. So, often business demands innovation, unconventional thinking.
16. Listen aggressively. Keep pausing. A slightly uncomfortable silence will make people say even more. Try it.
17. Talk less. That way you will learn more, hear more, see more and make fewer blunders.
18. Observe aggressively and learn to use it to advantage. You don't need to read a book on body language to interpret certain gestures.
19. Business situations always come down to people situations. And the sooner you know about the person you are dealing with, the more effective you are going to be.
20. Observation can yield rich results. Remember that people communicate with their eyes in business situations when they can't use words.
21. Mull over this, and master the principle. Business is a constant process of keeping your own guard up, while encouraging others to lower theirs.
22. Go with first impressions, but only after carefully scrutinizing them.
23. If you are about to make a presentation/phone call, take a moment to think about what, what reaction you want. It may yield good results.
24. Be detached. If you force yourself to step back from any biz situation, particularly one that is heating up, your powers of observation will increase.
Business Tips
1. Here's a sales mantra. Find out whom your would-be clients hate. That knowledge can help you push them towards your deal, particularly if they are sitting on the fence ready to teeter off to one side or the other.
2. One of the best sales techniques is to ask when can you meet the client and how soon - and then show up.
3. Suggest the same idea to two different key executives in the same company. If you can get them to agree separately that the idea is sound then, when you put them together, a sale is probably going to be the result.
4. Sales presentation made to a large group of people is a different ball game. If you try to sell to more than one person at the same time, you are introducing into the sale the dynamics of their inter-relationships, which can do nothing but detract from your purpose.
5. People in business want to do business with winners. It helps to make your present customers aware of either your own or your company's big wins in the past. Out-and-out bragging is not a very good idea, but it can be done subtly in a million other ways.
6. Here's a negotiation tip. The point of negotiation is to reach an agreement that is mutually advantageous to both parties. To make it a contest of egos can only work against you.
7. Acknowledge the other party's feelings. This is the oldest psychological technique in the world and works just as well in negotiations as it does in any other form of human relations.
8. The pressure to get a deal done can make you say and do things that aren't in your best interest. If the other party knows you have a deadline, they really don't need to know anything else.
9. Time itself - or the passing of it - can also be one of your most valuable negotiating allies. Anxiety and desire to get a deal done breed hyper-kinetic behaviour. There is a natural tendency to speed up the negotiation process rather than to slow it down. Force yourself to resist this urge, and take advantage of it in others.
10. Positioning is the key to a successful product. Always associate your product with positive values - positive home values, positive environment values, or positive values of excellence. Inevitably, these produce positive results.
11. Learn to master what is a conducive sales atmosphere. Just as there is a right time to make a sale there is usually a right place for it as well.
12. A chance encounter at a non-business locale can also present an opportunity. For example, running into a business associate at a beach or tennis club. You can bring up business topics, and follow them up later at office.
13. Never forget this sales mantra: It is so much easier to sell someone what they want to buy than it is to convince them to buy what you are selling.
14. If you are keen on a sales pitch, find out who does the buying. Every company has its system, procedures, and pecking order for making decisions. You should know these, if you want to win a bid.
15. If Edison had gone to business school, we would all be reading by larger candles. So, often business demands innovation, unconventional thinking.
16. Listen aggressively. Keep pausing. A slightly uncomfortable silence will make people say even more. Try it.
17. Talk less. That way you will learn more, hear more, see more and make fewer blunders.
18. Observe aggressively and learn to use it to advantage. You don't need to read a book on body language to interpret certain gestures.
19. Business situations always come down to people situations. And the sooner you know about the person you are dealing with, the more effective you are going to be.
20. Observation can yield rich results. Remember that people communicate with their eyes in business situations when they can't use words.
21. Mull over this, and master the principle. Business is a constant process of keeping your own guard up, while encouraging others to lower theirs.
22. Go with first impressions, but only after carefully scrutinizing them.
23. If you are about to make a presentation/phone call, take a moment to think about what, what reaction you want. It may yield good results.
24. Be detached. If you force yourself to step back from any biz situation, particularly one that is heating up, your powers of observation will increase.
Friday, November 11, 2011
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
भारतीय इकोनॉमी के लिए आ गई बुरी खबर!
भारतीय इकोनॉमी के लिए एक बार फिर से बुरी खबर सामने आ गई है। दरअसल इस साल सितंबर महीने के दौरान औद्योगिक उत्पादन की वृद्धि दर घटकर 1.9 फीसदी के स्तर प आ गई है। इसके पिछले महीने में यह आंकड़ा 3.6 फीसदी के स्तर पर रहा था। जानकारों का कहना है कि रिजर्व बैंक की तरफ से बार बार पॉलिसी दरें बढ़ाए जाने के चलते औद्योगिक उत्पादन वृद्धि दर में गिराट देखने को मिल रही है। आपको यह भी बता दें कि पिछले साल सितंबर महीने में आईआईपी ग्रोथ 6.1 फीसदी रही थी। सितंबर महीने में माइनिंग सेक्टर की ग्रोथ निगेटिव हो गई है और ये इस दौरान -5.6 फीसदी रही। पिछले साल के सितंबर महीने में माइनिंग सेक्टर की ग्रोथ 4.3 फीसदी रही थी। इसी तरह कैपिटल गुड्स सेक्टर की ग्रोथ भी निगेटिव हो कर -6.8 फीसदी के स्तर पर आ गई है। कंज्यूमर गुड्स की ग्रोथ में भी गिरावट आई है और ये 3.5 फीसदी पर पहुंच गई है। वहीं सितंबर में मैन्यूफैक्चरिंग सेक्टर की ग्रोथ घटकर 2.1 फीसदी रही है, जबकि पिछले साल सितंबर में इस सेक्टर की ग्रोथ 6.9 फीसदी रही थी। इन तमाम सेक्टर्स की ग्रोथ रेट में आ रही गिरावट का जानकार शुभ संकेत नहीं मान रहे हैं। जानकारों का कहना है कि स्थिति को काबू में करने के लिए अगर जल्दी कदम नहीं उठाए जाते हैं तो आने वाले दिनों में स्थिति और बुरी हो सकती है।
भारतीय इकोनॉमी के लिए आ गई बुरी खबर!
भारतीय इकोनॉमी के लिए एक बार फिर से बुरी खबर सामने आ गई है। दरअसल इस साल सितंबर महीने के दौरान औद्योगिक उत्पादन की वृद्धि दर घटकर 1.9 फीसदी के स्तर प आ गई है। इसके पिछले महीने में यह आंकड़ा 3.6 फीसदी के स्तर पर रहा था। जानकारों का कहना है कि रिजर्व बैंक की तरफ से बार बार पॉलिसी दरें बढ़ाए जाने के चलते औद्योगिक उत्पादन वृद्धि दर में गिराट देखने को मिल रही है। आपको यह भी बता दें कि पिछले साल सितंबर महीने में आईआईपी ग्रोथ 6.1 फीसदी रही थी। सितंबर महीने में माइनिंग सेक्टर की ग्रोथ निगेटिव हो गई है और ये इस दौरान -5.6 फीसदी रही। पिछले साल के सितंबर महीने में माइनिंग सेक्टर की ग्रोथ 4.3 फीसदी रही थी। इसी तरह कैपिटल गुड्स सेक्टर की ग्रोथ भी निगेटिव हो कर -6.8 फीसदी के स्तर पर आ गई है। कंज्यूमर गुड्स की ग्रोथ में भी गिरावट आई है और ये 3.5 फीसदी पर पहुंच गई है। वहीं सितंबर में मैन्यूफैक्चरिंग सेक्टर की ग्रोथ घटकर 2.1 फीसदी रही है, जबकि पिछले साल सितंबर में इस सेक्टर की ग्रोथ 6.9 फीसदी रही थी। इन तमाम सेक्टर्स की ग्रोथ रेट में आ रही गिरावट का जानकार शुभ संकेत नहीं मान रहे हैं। जानकारों का कहना है कि स्थिति को काबू में करने के लिए अगर जल्दी कदम नहीं उठाए जाते हैं तो आने वाले दिनों में स्थिति और बुरी हो सकती है।
Thursday, November 10, 2011
कहीं ले न डूबे भारत को इटली की 'बला'-
कहीं ले न डूबे भारत को इटली की 'बला'
ग्रीस के वित्तीय संकट पर बेल आउट के पैकेज को लेकर मार्केट में खुशी की बयार चली ही थी कि इटली पर आर्थिक संकट बढ़ने की खबर ने फिजा ही बदल दी। अब हालत यह है कि अमेरिका और यूरोपीय शेयर मार्केट में इटली संकट का नेगेटिव का असर पड़ना शुरू हो गया है।
शुक्रवार को खुलने वाले भारतीय शेयर मार्केट में इसकी छाप नजर आएगी। अंतरराष्ट्रीय मुद्रा कोष ने साफ कह दिया है कि अगर इटली के वित्तीय संकट को जल्द सुलझाया न गया तो ग्लोबल स्लोडाउन की हवा और तेज हो सकती है। भारत भी इससे अछूता नहीं रहेगा। असर जरूर पड़ेगा, मगर कितना असर पड़ेगा, यह बदलती परिस्थितियों के अनुरूप नीतियों में किस तरह से बदलाव किया जाता है, उस पर निर्भर करेगा। इटली के आर्थिक संकट के बारे में बताती जोसफ बर्नाड की रिपोर्ट:
क्या है इटली का संकट?
इटली का आर्थिक संकट जर्मनी, ग्रीस या अन्य यूरोपीय देशों से कुछ अलग है। विकसित देशों की इकॉनमी बॉन्ड्स मार्केट पर निर्भर करती है। सरकार अपनी आमदनी बॉन्ड्स के जरिए बढ़ाती है और आम आदमी भी बॉन्ड्स के जरिए मुनाफा कमाता है। इटली में नकदी का संकट आया। डिमांड में कमी के कारण औद्योगिक उत्पादन कम हुआ। इसका असर चीजों पर पड़ा। टैक्स कलेक्शन कम हुआ। आमदनी कम हुई और खर्चा बढ़ा। इस कमी को पाटने के लिए सरकार ने बॉन्ड्स का सहारा लिया। बॉन्ड्स जारी किए गए, लेकिन एक गलती हो गई।
बॉन्ड्स ज्यादा बिके, इसके लिए मार्केट में तेजी लाई गई और बॉन्ड्स पर ज्यादा ब्याज बढ़ा दिया। मौजूदा समय में बॉन्ड्स पर 7 पर्सेंट का ब्याज चल रहा है। अगले तीन वर्षों में सरकार ने जितने बॉन्ड्स लोगों को दिए, उसे अब वापस करना है। इसके लिए 475 अरब यूरो चाहिए। ऐसा ब्याज बढ़ने के कारण हुआ है। दूसरी तरफ सरकार पूरी तरह से कर्ज में डूबी हुई है। उस पर करीब 2 खरब यूरो का कर्ज है। कुल आमदनी का करीब 20 से 30 पर्सेंट तो इसके ब्याज पर चला जाता है। आमदनी घट रही है, ऐसे में उसे समझ में नहीं आ रहा है कि देश को कैसे चलाए। बैंकों और वित्तीय संस्थानों की वित्तीय हालत खस्ता हो गई। उन्होंने अपने नकदी को जो इनवेस्टमेंट किया था, उसका रिटर्न मार्केट से नहीं मिल रहा है। लोन की वसूली नहीं हो पा रही है। बढ़ती महंगाई ने आम आदमी के बजट को बिगाड़ दिया है।
क्या है बड़ी समस्या?
इटली के सामने बड़ी समस्या है कि बॉन्ड्स पर उसका ब्याज दर 7 पर्सेंट से ज्यादा है। ऐसे में उसको मार्केट से कर्ज भी इतने पर्सेंट पर मिलेगा। इसके अलावा अन्य देशी या वित्तीय संस्थानों को तय नियम के अनुसार इस ब्याज दर पर उसको कर्ज देना पड़ेगा। अगर इस ब्याज दर इटली ने कर्ज लिया तो उसको चुकाने की क्षमता उनके पास नहीं है क्योंकि पिछले कुछ सालों के दौरान इटली का जीडीपी ग्रोथ नेगेटिव जोन में चला गया था। बेशक वह फिर पॉजिटिव जोन में आया है। इजाफा नाममात्र का हुआ है , लेकिन स्थिति अभी गड़बड़ है।
क्या है रास्ता ?
मौजूदा परिस्थिति में रास्ता एक ही है कि इटली को बेल आउट पैकेज दिया जाए। यूरोपियन फाइनैंशल स्टेबिलिटी फैसिलिटी ( ईएफएसएफ ) के नियमों के तहत इटली को अधिकतम 1.60 खरब यूरो का पैकेज ही दिया जा सकता है। मगर अंतरराष्ट्रीय तय नियमों के साथ। ऐसा इसलिए किया जाता है कि बेल आउट पैकेज देने का पॉजिटिव परिणाम आ सके। बेल आउट पैकेज के साथ कुछ शर्तें जुड़ी होती है। इसमें खर्चों में कटौती करना। आमदनी बढ़ाने के नए रास्ते खोजना। दूसरे देशों के साथ कारोबार बढ़ाने के लिए राहत देना ताकि मार्केट में मनी फ्लो बढ़ सके।
प्राइवेट कंपनियों के साथ नए प्रोजेक्ट करना , मगर प्राइवेट कंपनियों को छूट में कमी करना। अपने देश की कंपनियों पर अपने मार्केट में निवेश के लिए दबाव बनाना। मगर परिस्थितियां देखते हुए इटली में ऐसा करना मुश्किल लग रहा है।
भारत पर असर
अगर अमेरिका या यूरोपीय शेयर मार्केट में खलबली वाली परिस्थितियां बनीं तो शेयर मार्केट में उतार दौर भारी पड़ सकता है। कॉमोडिटी मार्केट का संतुलन बिगड़ सकता है। सोना और चांदी में फॉरेन इनवेस्टर तेजी का खेल जारी रख सकते है। वे खाद्यान्न मार्केट का स्वाद भी बिगाड़ सकता है। आयात मूल्य बढ़ने पर भारत की क्या स्थिति होगी , इसका अंदाजा लगाया जा सकता है। सबसे अहम बात कि आईटी और वित्तीय सर्विस पर नेगेटिव असर पड़ेगा। इस वक्त दोनों सेक्टरों में सबसे अधिक नौकरियां युवाओं को मिल रहे हैं।
वित्तीय सेवाओं का योगदान देश की जीडीपी में योगदान बढ़कर 52 पर्सेंट पर पहुंच गया है। इन दोनों सेक्टरों को अगर विदेशों से ऑर्डर मिलना बंद हो गया तो भारत में बिजनेस कम होगा। बिजनेस कम होगा तो यहां पर नई नौकरियों के अवसर तो कम हो जाएंगे। साथ में जो कंपनियां इन सेक्टरों में कार्यरत हैं , उनको अपने को मार्केट की अपेक्षा के अनुरूप रखना भी मुश्किल हो जाएगा। एक और अहम पक्ष है विदेशी निवेश। भारत अपने मार्केट को संवारने और प्रोजेक्टों को पूरा करने के लिये विदेशी निवेश की जरूरत है।
अगर विदेशी निवेश रुक जाएगा तो इसका असर भारत की पूरी अर्थव्यवस्था पर पड़ेगा। डीएसई के पूर्व प्रेजिडेंट बी . बी . साहनी का कहना है कि अगर भारतीय शेयर मार्केट में खलबली का माहौल बना तो इसको रोकना मुश्किल हो सकता है।
ग्रीस के वित्तीय संकट पर बेल आउट के पैकेज को लेकर मार्केट में खुशी की बयार चली ही थी कि इटली पर आर्थिक संकट बढ़ने की खबर ने फिजा ही बदल दी। अब हालत यह है कि अमेरिका और यूरोपीय शेयर मार्केट में इटली संकट का नेगेटिव का असर पड़ना शुरू हो गया है।
शुक्रवार को खुलने वाले भारतीय शेयर मार्केट में इसकी छाप नजर आएगी। अंतरराष्ट्रीय मुद्रा कोष ने साफ कह दिया है कि अगर इटली के वित्तीय संकट को जल्द सुलझाया न गया तो ग्लोबल स्लोडाउन की हवा और तेज हो सकती है। भारत भी इससे अछूता नहीं रहेगा। असर जरूर पड़ेगा, मगर कितना असर पड़ेगा, यह बदलती परिस्थितियों के अनुरूप नीतियों में किस तरह से बदलाव किया जाता है, उस पर निर्भर करेगा। इटली के आर्थिक संकट के बारे में बताती जोसफ बर्नाड की रिपोर्ट:
क्या है इटली का संकट?
इटली का आर्थिक संकट जर्मनी, ग्रीस या अन्य यूरोपीय देशों से कुछ अलग है। विकसित देशों की इकॉनमी बॉन्ड्स मार्केट पर निर्भर करती है। सरकार अपनी आमदनी बॉन्ड्स के जरिए बढ़ाती है और आम आदमी भी बॉन्ड्स के जरिए मुनाफा कमाता है। इटली में नकदी का संकट आया। डिमांड में कमी के कारण औद्योगिक उत्पादन कम हुआ। इसका असर चीजों पर पड़ा। टैक्स कलेक्शन कम हुआ। आमदनी कम हुई और खर्चा बढ़ा। इस कमी को पाटने के लिए सरकार ने बॉन्ड्स का सहारा लिया। बॉन्ड्स जारी किए गए, लेकिन एक गलती हो गई।
बॉन्ड्स ज्यादा बिके, इसके लिए मार्केट में तेजी लाई गई और बॉन्ड्स पर ज्यादा ब्याज बढ़ा दिया। मौजूदा समय में बॉन्ड्स पर 7 पर्सेंट का ब्याज चल रहा है। अगले तीन वर्षों में सरकार ने जितने बॉन्ड्स लोगों को दिए, उसे अब वापस करना है। इसके लिए 475 अरब यूरो चाहिए। ऐसा ब्याज बढ़ने के कारण हुआ है। दूसरी तरफ सरकार पूरी तरह से कर्ज में डूबी हुई है। उस पर करीब 2 खरब यूरो का कर्ज है। कुल आमदनी का करीब 20 से 30 पर्सेंट तो इसके ब्याज पर चला जाता है। आमदनी घट रही है, ऐसे में उसे समझ में नहीं आ रहा है कि देश को कैसे चलाए। बैंकों और वित्तीय संस्थानों की वित्तीय हालत खस्ता हो गई। उन्होंने अपने नकदी को जो इनवेस्टमेंट किया था, उसका रिटर्न मार्केट से नहीं मिल रहा है। लोन की वसूली नहीं हो पा रही है। बढ़ती महंगाई ने आम आदमी के बजट को बिगाड़ दिया है।
क्या है बड़ी समस्या?
इटली के सामने बड़ी समस्या है कि बॉन्ड्स पर उसका ब्याज दर 7 पर्सेंट से ज्यादा है। ऐसे में उसको मार्केट से कर्ज भी इतने पर्सेंट पर मिलेगा। इसके अलावा अन्य देशी या वित्तीय संस्थानों को तय नियम के अनुसार इस ब्याज दर पर उसको कर्ज देना पड़ेगा। अगर इस ब्याज दर इटली ने कर्ज लिया तो उसको चुकाने की क्षमता उनके पास नहीं है क्योंकि पिछले कुछ सालों के दौरान इटली का जीडीपी ग्रोथ नेगेटिव जोन में चला गया था। बेशक वह फिर पॉजिटिव जोन में आया है। इजाफा नाममात्र का हुआ है , लेकिन स्थिति अभी गड़बड़ है।
क्या है रास्ता ?
मौजूदा परिस्थिति में रास्ता एक ही है कि इटली को बेल आउट पैकेज दिया जाए। यूरोपियन फाइनैंशल स्टेबिलिटी फैसिलिटी ( ईएफएसएफ ) के नियमों के तहत इटली को अधिकतम 1.60 खरब यूरो का पैकेज ही दिया जा सकता है। मगर अंतरराष्ट्रीय तय नियमों के साथ। ऐसा इसलिए किया जाता है कि बेल आउट पैकेज देने का पॉजिटिव परिणाम आ सके। बेल आउट पैकेज के साथ कुछ शर्तें जुड़ी होती है। इसमें खर्चों में कटौती करना। आमदनी बढ़ाने के नए रास्ते खोजना। दूसरे देशों के साथ कारोबार बढ़ाने के लिए राहत देना ताकि मार्केट में मनी फ्लो बढ़ सके।
प्राइवेट कंपनियों के साथ नए प्रोजेक्ट करना , मगर प्राइवेट कंपनियों को छूट में कमी करना। अपने देश की कंपनियों पर अपने मार्केट में निवेश के लिए दबाव बनाना। मगर परिस्थितियां देखते हुए इटली में ऐसा करना मुश्किल लग रहा है।
भारत पर असर
अगर अमेरिका या यूरोपीय शेयर मार्केट में खलबली वाली परिस्थितियां बनीं तो शेयर मार्केट में उतार दौर भारी पड़ सकता है। कॉमोडिटी मार्केट का संतुलन बिगड़ सकता है। सोना और चांदी में फॉरेन इनवेस्टर तेजी का खेल जारी रख सकते है। वे खाद्यान्न मार्केट का स्वाद भी बिगाड़ सकता है। आयात मूल्य बढ़ने पर भारत की क्या स्थिति होगी , इसका अंदाजा लगाया जा सकता है। सबसे अहम बात कि आईटी और वित्तीय सर्विस पर नेगेटिव असर पड़ेगा। इस वक्त दोनों सेक्टरों में सबसे अधिक नौकरियां युवाओं को मिल रहे हैं।
वित्तीय सेवाओं का योगदान देश की जीडीपी में योगदान बढ़कर 52 पर्सेंट पर पहुंच गया है। इन दोनों सेक्टरों को अगर विदेशों से ऑर्डर मिलना बंद हो गया तो भारत में बिजनेस कम होगा। बिजनेस कम होगा तो यहां पर नई नौकरियों के अवसर तो कम हो जाएंगे। साथ में जो कंपनियां इन सेक्टरों में कार्यरत हैं , उनको अपने को मार्केट की अपेक्षा के अनुरूप रखना भी मुश्किल हो जाएगा। एक और अहम पक्ष है विदेशी निवेश। भारत अपने मार्केट को संवारने और प्रोजेक्टों को पूरा करने के लिये विदेशी निवेश की जरूरत है।
अगर विदेशी निवेश रुक जाएगा तो इसका असर भारत की पूरी अर्थव्यवस्था पर पड़ेगा। डीएसई के पूर्व प्रेजिडेंट बी . बी . साहनी का कहना है कि अगर भारतीय शेयर मार्केट में खलबली का माहौल बना तो इसको रोकना मुश्किल हो सकता है।
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
Asian markets trade lower; Hang Seng tumbles 4.5%
Asian stocks fell sharply on Thursday after soaring Italian borrowing costs stoked fears the debt crisis in the euro zone's third biggest economy will overwhelm its financial defences, raising the risk of a break-up of the currency area.
The euro was steady, after suffering its biggest daily drop in 15 months on Wednesday, while industrial commodities such as copper and oil softened on worries of renewed recession.
Asian credit spreads blew out as the deepening crisis in Europe sapped investor appetite for risk, while safe haven assets such as Japanese government bonds were in demand.
"Whatever they come up with, it doesn't avoid a European recession," said Su-Lin Ong, senior economist at RBC Capital Markets in Sydney.
"The question now is just how deep it will be and whether this is going to bleed over into the banking system, because that is much more significant."
At 11:08 am (IST), Asian markets were trading lower. China's Shanghai Composite fell 1.29% or 32.60 points at 2,492.32.
Japan's Nikkei was down 2.57% or 225.28 points at 8,530.16.
Singapore's Straits Times fell 2.73% or 77.92 points at 2,780.74.
South Korea's Seoul Composite slipped 3.48% or 66.47 points at 1,841.06.
Taiwan's Taiwan Weighted plunged 3.25% or 245.67 points at 7,316.19.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng tumbled 4.48% or 896.92 points at 19,117.51 as European woes were exacerbated by data showing China's exports rose at their weakest pace in 8 months in October. Europe is China's biggest export market.
Italy has for the time being replaced Greece as the biggest source of concern in Europe's two-year-old debt crisis.
Italian 10-year bond yields rose above 7 percent on Wednesday, a level most market economists consider unsustainable for financing debt of more than 2 trillion euros.
A pledge by Italy's Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi to stand down failed to reassure bond markets that Rome has the will to bring its debts under control, and moves by two major clearing houses to raise the level of collateral needed for holders of Italian debt pushed the country near breaking point.
European and U.S. stocks fell steeply on Wednesday in response, with Wall Street shares losing more than 3 percent.
TOO BIG TO BAIL
Ireland and Portugal were both forced to seek aid soon after their 10-year bond yields topped 7 percent, but a rescue for Italy would be on a different scale and Europe's bailout fund is widely considered inadequate for the task.
The European Central Bank (ECB), considered the only institution capable of repelling the bond market attacks, bought Italian bonds in substantial amounts on Wednesday, but is reluctant to go further to force down yields.
"The markets were basically in a panic yesterday and the only thing that can give the euro at least a temporary respite is quick action from the ECB to lower Italian yields," said Koji Fukaya, chief currency strategist at Credit Suisse in Tokyo.
Whilst many outside Europe are calling on the ECB to take a more active role, as other major central banks do, in acting as lender of last resort, Germany remains implacably opposed to what it views as a threat to the central bank's independence.
In a sign of the depth of fear gripping European capitals, EU sources told Reuters that French and German officials had held discussions about a euro zone split.
The single currency was steady around $1.3540 , after tumbling around 2 percent on Wednesday.
The dollar was also steady against a basket of currencies, after surging in the previous session as investors scurried for safety, while yields on 10-year Japanese government bonds fell 0.5 basis point to 0.970 percent.
In Asian credit markets, spreads widened on the Asia ex-Japan iTraxx investment grade index , a gauge of risk appetite.
Concerns about flagging demand knocked London Metal Exchange copper down 2.5 percent. U.S. crude oil fell 0.3 percent to $95.43 a barrel, while Brent crude dipped 0.1 percent to around $112.21.
(With inputs from Reuters)
Asian markets trade lower; Hang Seng tumbles 4.5%
Asian stocks fell sharply on Thursday after soaring Italian borrowing costs stoked fears the debt crisis in the euro zone's third biggest economy will overwhelm its financial defences, raising the risk of a break-up of the currency area.
The euro was steady, after suffering its biggest daily drop in 15 months on Wednesday, while industrial commodities such as copper and oil softened on worries of renewed recession.
Asian credit spreads blew out as the deepening crisis in Europe sapped investor appetite for risk, while safe haven assets such as Japanese government bonds were in demand.
"Whatever they come up with, it doesn't avoid a European recession," said Su-Lin Ong, senior economist at RBC Capital Markets in Sydney.
"The question now is just how deep it will be and whether this is going to bleed over into the banking system, because that is much more significant."
At 11:08 am (IST), Asian markets were trading lower. China's Shanghai Composite fell 1.29% or 32.60 points at 2,492.32.
Japan's Nikkei was down 2.57% or 225.28 points at 8,530.16.
Singapore's Straits Times fell 2.73% or 77.92 points at 2,780.74.
South Korea's Seoul Composite slipped 3.48% or 66.47 points at 1,841.06.
Taiwan's Taiwan Weighted plunged 3.25% or 245.67 points at 7,316.19.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng tumbled 4.48% or 896.92 points at 19,117.51 as European woes were exacerbated by data showing China's exports rose at their weakest pace in 8 months in October. Europe is China's biggest export market.
Italy has for the time being replaced Greece as the biggest source of concern in Europe's two-year-old debt crisis.
Italian 10-year bond yields rose above 7 percent on Wednesday, a level most market economists consider unsustainable for financing debt of more than 2 trillion euros.
A pledge by Italy's Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi to stand down failed to reassure bond markets that Rome has the will to bring its debts under control, and moves by two major clearing houses to raise the level of collateral needed for holders of Italian debt pushed the country near breaking point.
European and U.S. stocks fell steeply on Wednesday in response, with Wall Street shares losing more than 3 percent.
TOO BIG TO BAIL
Ireland and Portugal were both forced to seek aid soon after their 10-year bond yields topped 7 percent, but a rescue for Italy would be on a different scale and Europe's bailout fund is widely considered inadequate for the task.
The European Central Bank (ECB), considered the only institution capable of repelling the bond market attacks, bought Italian bonds in substantial amounts on Wednesday, but is reluctant to go further to force down yields.
"The markets were basically in a panic yesterday and the only thing that can give the euro at least a temporary respite is quick action from the ECB to lower Italian yields," said Koji Fukaya, chief currency strategist at Credit Suisse in Tokyo.
Whilst many outside Europe are calling on the ECB to take a more active role, as other major central banks do, in acting as lender of last resort, Germany remains implacably opposed to what it views as a threat to the central bank's independence.
In a sign of the depth of fear gripping European capitals, EU sources told Reuters that French and German officials had held discussions about a euro zone split.
The single currency was steady around $1.3540 , after tumbling around 2 percent on Wednesday.
The dollar was also steady against a basket of currencies, after surging in the previous session as investors scurried for safety, while yields on 10-year Japanese government bonds fell 0.5 basis point to 0.970 percent.
In Asian credit markets, spreads widened on the Asia ex-Japan iTraxx investment grade index , a gauge of risk appetite.
Concerns about flagging demand knocked London Metal Exchange copper down 2.5 percent. U.S. crude oil fell 0.3 percent to $95.43 a barrel, while Brent crude dipped 0.1 percent to around $112.21.
(With inputs from Reuters)
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
Italy: Definitely too big to fail, maybe too big to bail
We may be nearing the finale of the Euro crisis that has been building for at least a year and a half.
What Italy does now, and how governments and markets respond, may determine whether we have been watching a tragedy or something less serious.
Whatever it is, it definitely has elements of both.
Italy is the domino that cannot be allowed to fall over, because it would risk knocking over too much else.
Yet it is also so large that saving it requires huge financial resources. Italy has well over $1 trillion of government debt, about 1.2 times the annual output of the whole nation.
It cannot afford to pay an interest rate of 7% or 8% without major cutbacks, so the rates now demanded by the market are unsustainable.
Official: Italy will adopt austerity measures
Either Italy and its partners in the eurozone calm the markets, or Italy is likely to eventually restructure its debt by imposing losses on the current bondowners. A big problem is that cutting the debt could impose half a trillion dollars or more of losses on other parties.
Such a level of losses would do real damage to the European financial system and both directly and indirectly on the wider economy.
Worse, an Italian default would almost surely force defaults by Spain, Portugal, and perhaps Ireland, since their access to the bond markets will dry up as justifiable fear spreads. (Why own a bond paying even 10% if you think 50% losses may soon be imposed?)
This matters because Spain is nearly as big as Italy.
Eurozone governments and the European Central Bank would be well-advised to prevent an Italian default at almost any cost (as the rest of the world has been screaming recently).
Italy: Definitely too big to fail, maybe too big to bail
We may be nearing the finale of the Euro crisis that has been building for at least a year and a half.
What Italy does now, and how governments and markets respond, may determine whether we have been watching a tragedy or something less serious.
Whatever it is, it definitely has elements of both.
Italy is the domino that cannot be allowed to fall over, because it would risk knocking over too much else.
Yet it is also so large that saving it requires huge financial resources. Italy has well over $1 trillion of government debt, about 1.2 times the annual output of the whole nation.
It cannot afford to pay an interest rate of 7% or 8% without major cutbacks, so the rates now demanded by the market are unsustainable.
Official: Italy will adopt austerity measures
Either Italy and its partners in the eurozone calm the markets, or Italy is likely to eventually restructure its debt by imposing losses on the current bondowners. A big problem is that cutting the debt could impose half a trillion dollars or more of losses on other parties.
Such a level of losses would do real damage to the European financial system and both directly and indirectly on the wider economy.
Worse, an Italian default would almost surely force defaults by Spain, Portugal, and perhaps Ireland, since their access to the bond markets will dry up as justifiable fear spreads. (Why own a bond paying even 10% if you think 50% losses may soon be imposed?)
This matters because Spain is nearly as big as Italy.
Eurozone governments and the European Central Bank would be well-advised to prevent an Italian default at almost any cost (as the rest of the world has been screaming recently).
Tuesday, November 8, 2011
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
Bad news won't deeply cut consolidating mkt: Experts
It was an uneventful trading day on Dalal Street today. Upbeat European markets helped the Nifty cut back losses and close trade in the green. However, key events like an emergency cabinet session in Greece, Italy PM's confidence vote and the meeting of European Union finance ministers kept traders on their toes throughout trade today. The Sensex shut shop up 6.92 points at 17,569.53 while the Nifty rose just 5.15 points to end at 5,289.35.
The next big question is if we catch up to the 5300 mark soon and analysts are extremely positive we can. Even though hiccups may arise both domestically and globally, experts say that most adverse news has already been discounted by the market. “Any fresh adverse news will be unable to push the market much below current levels,” believes Ambareesh Baliga of Way2Wealth Securities, adding that the maximum downside for the market is around 5200-5250.
Going into the peak end of the calendar year, Baliga says that the market has created a new range between 5,200 to about 5,550-5,600. However, for the month of November, he thinks 5400 will act as a resistance. “But we should be able to cross that and move towards 5,600 towards the end of the year,” he adds.
Portfolio manager PN Vijay is also of the same view. He believes that even though we are in a consolidation phase, decent news like ECB’s bond issue money falling in place and actually coming into Greece could actually trigger a big upside. “I think we have reached a stage in this market where the macros have got discounted. So I think this is a consolidating phase with a potential to go higher,” he explained on CNBC-TV18.
On a more short term view, Sudarshan Sukhani of Technical Trends.com strongly advocates identifying dips and buying into positions then. “If we don’t breakout on either side of this trading range, there is no way of saying what will happen in the near future,” he said.
Bad news won't deeply cut consolidating mkt: Experts
It was an uneventful trading day on Dalal Street today. Upbeat European markets helped the Nifty cut back losses and close trade in the green. However, key events like an emergency cabinet session in Greece, Italy PM's confidence vote and the meeting of European Union finance ministers kept traders on their toes throughout trade today. The Sensex shut shop up 6.92 points at 17,569.53 while the Nifty rose just 5.15 points to end at 5,289.35.
The next big question is if we catch up to the 5300 mark soon and analysts are extremely positive we can. Even though hiccups may arise both domestically and globally, experts say that most adverse news has already been discounted by the market. “Any fresh adverse news will be unable to push the market much below current levels,” believes Ambareesh Baliga of Way2Wealth Securities, adding that the maximum downside for the market is around 5200-5250.
Going into the peak end of the calendar year, Baliga says that the market has created a new range between 5,200 to about 5,550-5,600. However, for the month of November, he thinks 5400 will act as a resistance. “But we should be able to cross that and move towards 5,600 towards the end of the year,” he adds.
Portfolio manager PN Vijay is also of the same view. He believes that even though we are in a consolidation phase, decent news like ECB’s bond issue money falling in place and actually coming into Greece could actually trigger a big upside. “I think we have reached a stage in this market where the macros have got discounted. So I think this is a consolidating phase with a potential to go higher,” he explained on CNBC-TV18.
On a more short term view, Sudarshan Sukhani of Technical Trends.com strongly advocates identifying dips and buying into positions then. “If we don’t breakout on either side of this trading range, there is no way of saying what will happen in the near future,” he said.
Monday, November 7, 2011
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
Asian shares fall after Greece coalition deal, Italy eyed.
Asian shares struggled and credit markets weakened on Monday, with investors still nervous despite the agreement on formation of a new Greek unity government intent on avoiding imminent debt default.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan, which traded between plus 0.3 percent and minus 0.6 percent, was down 0.2 percent. Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 0.5 percent while Hong Kong shares opened slightly higher but then slipped to be off 0.1 percent.
U.S. stock index futures reversed course and fell into negative territory after opening higher, as market players refocused on a lack of commitment to details that are crucial in making the Greek bailout program work.
Investors were also shifting their attention to another debt-burdened country, Italy, putting it under pressure to swiftly restore its credibility on financial markets.
The spreads on the iTraxx Asia ex-Japan investment grade index , a gauge of investor appetite for risk, widened by 3 basis points as equities languished.
"Credit market spreads are a bit wider, while equities are mixed, because debt issues may matter more for Europe and the credit markets are more bearish over these kinds of uncertainties," said Frances Cheung, senior strategist for Asia ex-Japan at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong.
"We'll watch out for any Italian debt auctions to see where demand is coming from," she said, questioning the ability of some euro zone countries to sustain themselves without selling their own debts.
Italy is the third largest economy in the euro zone with the biggest government bond market. With Italy's debt levels stuck at 120 percent of GDP, the country's debt problems would pose a much bigger risk to the financial markets than Greece does.
Italy's borrowing costs have been rising sharply over the past several weeks.
Italian 10-year government bond yields hit record highs of around 6.4 percent on Friday, expanding the spread of Italian 10-year yields over Bunds to a new lifetime high.
With many trading centres in Asia on holiday on Monday, including India, Malaysia, Philippines and Singapore, price actions may not necessarily be all that representative given thin volumes, analysts said.
GREEK WOES
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou and opposition leader Antonis Samaras agreed on a new coalition government to approve the bailout plan, which requires painful fiscal reform, before elections.
Papandreou and Samaras had been scrambling to reach a deal before finance ministers of euro countries meet in Brussels later on Monday, to show that Greece is serious about taking steps needed to stave off bankruptcy.
Political wrangling in Greece had sparked panic in global financial markets on fears that it would fail to save the country from defaulting and to stop the sovereign debt crisis from spreading to other countries in the euro zone.
While Greece has for now managed to stay on track to reduce its huge debt, market jitters remain over a lack of funding to beef up the bailout fund after the euro zone failed to get any concrete pledge for new money at a G20 summit on Friday.
"We believe what will matter more for markets in the near term is the relatively disappointing outcome of the G20 meeting, given the lack of progress on backstop facilities," Barclays Capital analysts said in a report.
"Any further rise in Italian yields and spreads would make us very cautious about cross-market implications for risk assets," they said.
Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said his country would welcome quarterly monitoring by the International Monetary Fund of pension and labour market reforms and privatisations he had promised to implement.
Leaders of the world's major economies deferred until next year any move to provide more crisis-fighting resources to the IMF.
SAFETY BID RETURNS
The euro fell 0.4 percent to $1.3770 against the dollar, retreating from an earlier high of $1.3837 , while the Australian dollar , which often is seen as a gauge for risk appetite given its close link to commodities, also eased 0.4 percent.
"For now, they've managed to stave off any panic, but it's not looking positive for them," said Grant Turley, strategist at ANZ in Sydney. "It feels like a low conviction, fatigued market at this point in time."
A retreat in investor appetite for riskier assets helped safe-haven government bonds, with U.S. Treasury futures down 1.5/32 at 130-06.5/32 from 130-08/32 late on Friday in New York. It was down to around 130 in early Asia on Monday.
Spot gold rose 0.7 percent to $1,766 an ounce on Monday, as uncertainties over the euro zone debt crisis renewed bids for safe-haven assets.
Asian shares fall after Greece coalition deal, Italy eyed.
Asian shares struggled and credit markets weakened on Monday, with investors still nervous despite the agreement on formation of a new Greek unity government intent on avoiding imminent debt default.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan, which traded between plus 0.3 percent and minus 0.6 percent, was down 0.2 percent. Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 0.5 percent while Hong Kong shares opened slightly higher but then slipped to be off 0.1 percent.
U.S. stock index futures reversed course and fell into negative territory after opening higher, as market players refocused on a lack of commitment to details that are crucial in making the Greek bailout program work.
Investors were also shifting their attention to another debt-burdened country, Italy, putting it under pressure to swiftly restore its credibility on financial markets.
The spreads on the iTraxx Asia ex-Japan investment grade index , a gauge of investor appetite for risk, widened by 3 basis points as equities languished.
"Credit market spreads are a bit wider, while equities are mixed, because debt issues may matter more for Europe and the credit markets are more bearish over these kinds of uncertainties," said Frances Cheung, senior strategist for Asia ex-Japan at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong.
"We'll watch out for any Italian debt auctions to see where demand is coming from," she said, questioning the ability of some euro zone countries to sustain themselves without selling their own debts.
Italy is the third largest economy in the euro zone with the biggest government bond market. With Italy's debt levels stuck at 120 percent of GDP, the country's debt problems would pose a much bigger risk to the financial markets than Greece does.
Italy's borrowing costs have been rising sharply over the past several weeks.
Italian 10-year government bond yields hit record highs of around 6.4 percent on Friday, expanding the spread of Italian 10-year yields over Bunds to a new lifetime high.
With many trading centres in Asia on holiday on Monday, including India, Malaysia, Philippines and Singapore, price actions may not necessarily be all that representative given thin volumes, analysts said.
GREEK WOES
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou and opposition leader Antonis Samaras agreed on a new coalition government to approve the bailout plan, which requires painful fiscal reform, before elections.
Papandreou and Samaras had been scrambling to reach a deal before finance ministers of euro countries meet in Brussels later on Monday, to show that Greece is serious about taking steps needed to stave off bankruptcy.
Political wrangling in Greece had sparked panic in global financial markets on fears that it would fail to save the country from defaulting and to stop the sovereign debt crisis from spreading to other countries in the euro zone.
While Greece has for now managed to stay on track to reduce its huge debt, market jitters remain over a lack of funding to beef up the bailout fund after the euro zone failed to get any concrete pledge for new money at a G20 summit on Friday.
"We believe what will matter more for markets in the near term is the relatively disappointing outcome of the G20 meeting, given the lack of progress on backstop facilities," Barclays Capital analysts said in a report.
"Any further rise in Italian yields and spreads would make us very cautious about cross-market implications for risk assets," they said.
Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said his country would welcome quarterly monitoring by the International Monetary Fund of pension and labour market reforms and privatisations he had promised to implement.
Leaders of the world's major economies deferred until next year any move to provide more crisis-fighting resources to the IMF.
SAFETY BID RETURNS
The euro fell 0.4 percent to $1.3770 against the dollar, retreating from an earlier high of $1.3837 , while the Australian dollar , which often is seen as a gauge for risk appetite given its close link to commodities, also eased 0.4 percent.
"For now, they've managed to stave off any panic, but it's not looking positive for them," said Grant Turley, strategist at ANZ in Sydney. "It feels like a low conviction, fatigued market at this point in time."
A retreat in investor appetite for riskier assets helped safe-haven government bonds, with U.S. Treasury futures down 1.5/32 at 130-06.5/32 from 130-08/32 late on Friday in New York. It was down to around 130 in early Asia on Monday.
Spot gold rose 0.7 percent to $1,766 an ounce on Monday, as uncertainties over the euro zone debt crisis renewed bids for safe-haven assets.
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
SILVER FUT 5 DEC 11 MCX BUY ABOVE @ 56459 TARGET 56660 57063 57710 STOP LOSS 56197 ALL MOST EVERY TARGET HAS BEEN ACHIEVED.
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SILVER FUT 5 DEC 11 MCX BUY ABOVE @ 56459 TARGET 56660 57063 57710 STOP LOSS 56197 ALL MOST EVERY TARGET HAS BEEN ACHIEVED.
JOIN US 350/- PM, 1500/- 6 MONTH.
www.marketfutureindia.com
info@marketfutureindia.com
09752348571
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
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AND SEND IT TO 9870807070
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AND SEND IT TO 9870807070
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Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
SILVER FUT 5 DEC 11 MCX BUY ABOVE @ 56459 TARGET 56660 57063 57710 STOP LOSS 56197
SILVER FUT 5 DEC 11 MCX SELL BELOW @ 56197 TARGET 56137 56016 55395 STOP LOSS 56459
If u want to earn in share market & commodity then join our service in just 350/-PM and 1500/-6 MONTH.
09752348571
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SILVER FUT 5 DEC 11 MCX BUY ABOVE @ 56459 TARGET 56660 57063 57710 STOP LOSS 56197
SILVER FUT 5 DEC 11 MCX SELL BELOW @ 56197 TARGET 56137 56016 55395 STOP LOSS 56459
If u want to earn in share market & commodity then join our service in just 350/-PM and 1500/-6 MONTH.
09752348571
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Sunday, November 6, 2011
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
NEW:- NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY TARGET 08-10-2011 TO 11-11-2011
1 NIFTY FUTURE BUY ABOVE @ 5362.1 TARGET 5407 5480 5654 STOP LOSS 5274.9
2 NIFTY FUTURE SELL BELOW @ 5274.9 TARGET 5233 5131 4956 STOP LOSS 5362.1
NEW:- NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY TARGET 08-10-2011 TO 11-11-2011
1 NIFTY FUTURE BUY ABOVE @ 5362.1 TARGET 5407 5480 5654 STOP LOSS 5274.9
2 NIFTY FUTURE SELL BELOW @ 5274.9 TARGET 5233 5131 4956 STOP LOSS 5362.1
Friday, November 4, 2011
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
If u want to earn in share market & commodity then join our service in just 350/-PM and 1500/-6 MONTH y u pay 2500/-, 5000/- PM
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Saturday, August 20, 2011
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Gold is the bubble which can burst anytime.
No wonder! Gold is shining pretty well these days and it has substantial reasons to shine. The downgrade of the US' sovereign debt by Standard and Poor's to AA+ has given another very reason to this precious metal to show its radiance.
Until and unless the global economic instability continues, the buying euphoria among the investors wouldn't die. They are over-optimistic about the gold outlook. But, before you convert your all investments to gold, don't forget that it is trading at its all-time highs, it's a bubble which can burst one fine day. Find out why:
Speculative activities: Speculators purchase gold purely on the hope of selling at a higher price at some point of time. Ben Graham, the mentor of Warren Buffet has referred the term 'speculation' as the “greater fool” theory. That implies; “I know I am a fool to pay such a high price for an asset but I know that a greater fool will come along and pay me an even higher price.”
Speculators are risk takers, they've extra surplus to invest and bear the risk. They are quick at moving something up but are also quick at moving something down.
No supply constraint: World Gold Council statistics say, annual gold production levels from major producers are meeting up the requirement so supply constraints are not an issue, it's just the global economic slowdown driving prices high.
No dividends or interest: Gold doesn't pay any dividend or interest on investment like stocks or bonds. It's just the store of value and you can gain only if you sell it at a higher price.
Inflation: Emerging economies like India and China are the world's largest consumers of gold, but India and China are going through inflationary pressures. Government have kept interest rates high to curb stubborn inflation. Due to high interest rates, the cost living is hurting earners, savers and seniors alike, because their incomes aren't growing. If prices are too high they wouldn't be able to buy gold.
Recent inflation figures say it is still quite high than government's comfort zone so interest rates might rise again. Earners will face contraction phase further which might kill demand for gold in coming future. So if demand shrinks, prices may fall in near future.
Bottom Line: Though it is one of the hottest investments over the course and if you are the one who has missed out the rally train, you can invest now. But do not overload your portfolio only with the gold. It should comprise of your portfolio but not more than 15-20%.
You can gradually add gold in bits and pieces in your portfolio and if you feel any downward pressure to occur on gold, you can start diversifying your investments to other assets.
Until and unless the global economic instability continues, the buying euphoria among the investors wouldn't die. They are over-optimistic about the gold outlook. But, before you convert your all investments to gold, don't forget that it is trading at its all-time highs, it's a bubble which can burst one fine day. Find out why:
Speculative activities: Speculators purchase gold purely on the hope of selling at a higher price at some point of time. Ben Graham, the mentor of Warren Buffet has referred the term 'speculation' as the “greater fool” theory. That implies; “I know I am a fool to pay such a high price for an asset but I know that a greater fool will come along and pay me an even higher price.”
Speculators are risk takers, they've extra surplus to invest and bear the risk. They are quick at moving something up but are also quick at moving something down.
No supply constraint: World Gold Council statistics say, annual gold production levels from major producers are meeting up the requirement so supply constraints are not an issue, it's just the global economic slowdown driving prices high.
No dividends or interest: Gold doesn't pay any dividend or interest on investment like stocks or bonds. It's just the store of value and you can gain only if you sell it at a higher price.
Inflation: Emerging economies like India and China are the world's largest consumers of gold, but India and China are going through inflationary pressures. Government have kept interest rates high to curb stubborn inflation. Due to high interest rates, the cost living is hurting earners, savers and seniors alike, because their incomes aren't growing. If prices are too high they wouldn't be able to buy gold.
Recent inflation figures say it is still quite high than government's comfort zone so interest rates might rise again. Earners will face contraction phase further which might kill demand for gold in coming future. So if demand shrinks, prices may fall in near future.
Bottom Line: Though it is one of the hottest investments over the course and if you are the one who has missed out the rally train, you can invest now. But do not overload your portfolio only with the gold. It should comprise of your portfolio but not more than 15-20%.
You can gradually add gold in bits and pieces in your portfolio and if you feel any downward pressure to occur on gold, you can start diversifying your investments to other assets.
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
No upside on equities; don't enter India now: Julius Baer
In an interview on CNBC-TV18, V Anantha Nageswaran, Senior Economic Advisor to Julius Baer talks about the current global scenario after a near crisis was averted with the passing of the US debt agreement.
Below is a verbatim transcript of his interview with CNBC-TV18’s Udayan Mukherjee and Sonia Shenoy. For complete details watch the accompanying video.
Q: Are you feeling bearish about global equities or do you think we have had a lot of pain and we are ripe for some kind of a bounce?
A: The bounce was expected after the so called debt ceiling increase but is hasn’t happened. Therefore, I am not particularly positive on equities. I am negative on equities. The world has to deal with both structural issues which have not been addressed since 2008 and a cyclical slowdown, both, in the West and East due to inflation concerns and tightening that has happened so far. Overall, the backdrop for equities does not look good.
Q: The US markets have already wiped off all of their yearly gains. Do you anticipate some more of a cut in the global markets?
A: I think so. The fact is the US has now a deal which imposes a short-term fiscal retrenchment which probably is something the country does not need. In the eurozone you have two big counties, Italy and Spain are seeing their bond yields rise. In Asia, you still have inflation concerns.
If by some chance these western countries eventually adopt reflationary policies by an additional round of monetary easing, it is going to complicate the inflation challenge for Asia. So whichever way you slice the argument, I don’t see an upside for equities. In fact I see quite a bit of downside in the second half.
Q: How much lower do you think the Indian market can go?
A: In terms of Sensex, we have always managed to hold the head above 18,000. Therefore, I believe that the market hasn’t really become a value play yet. I would wait to enter into the Indian market
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
India may see worst growth since credit crisis: Chetan Ahya
India's economy may be headed for a sharper slowdown than most are expecting, and could see its worst growth rate since the depths of the credit crisis, according to economists at Morgan Stanley.
"Clear signs of slowdown have emerged over the last 3-4 months," Chetan Ahya, an economist at the bank said in a report. Morgan Stanley cut its growth forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2012 to 7.2% from 7.7%. That's far below the government`s forecast for growth of 8.2% for the current fiscal year.
"We believe a combination of factors - including persistently high inflation, higher cost of capital, cut in fiscal spending to GDP, weak global capital markets environment and slow pace of investment - will cause a further slowdown in growth," the report said.
Other economists are also warning of a slowdown. Credit Suisse see India`s growth rate easing to 7.5% for the next 2 years, with more risks to the downside.
"Significant pockets of vulnerability do exist in the Indian economy, with real estate, big-ticket consumer durables and capital goods set for a particularly tough eighteen months or so," the bank said in a report.
The latest sign of a slowdown came on Monday, with data showing factory expansion was at its weakest in 20 months in July. That's on top of a moderation in car and retail sales as well as construction and investment spending in July.
India's economy was able to hold up relatively well during the economic crisis thanks to monetary and fiscal stimulus, but that stimulus has come back to bite the economy in the form of high inflation, say analysts.
"Persistently higher inflation is eroding consumer purchasing power," Morgan Stanley's Ahya wrote.
India`s inflation measured by the wholesale price index (WPI) - remains elevated at 9.4%. Little wonder, the central bank has been forced to hike interest rates, despite slowing growth. The monetary tightening will be accompanied by more fiscal tightening, according to Morgan Stanley, which says the government will be forced to cut back on spending to meet its fiscal deficit target of 4.7% of GDP.
Taken together, Morgan Stanley believes India's equity market - already the worst performing in Asia this year, could fall further.
"With slowdown in overall growth, we believe investment sentiment could remain weak over the next two quarters."
Copyright 2011 cnbc.com
The bear market is starting: Marc Faber
The bear market is on its way back, economist and contrarian investor Marc Faber, the editor and publisher of The Gloom Boom and Doom Report told CNBC Tuesday.
"The bear market is starting. When you compare equities to bonds and cash I don`t think equities are very positive," Faber said in an interview.
The SandP 500 (INDEX: .spx) has risen steadily since hitting its lowest point of the previous decade in March 2009.
Markets have been more turbulent in recent months as debt crises in both the US and the euro zone threatened to damage growth there.
"The Treasury market is telling you that the economy is in recession," said Faber. "So if the bond market is telling you that the economies of the Western world are weakening, but at the same time the stock market is still relatively high, I think the stock market is vulnerable."
He added his voice to those criticizing politicians in the US and elsewhere over the current problems.
"The politicians are all useless individuals. Nobody is reducing the problems in the US or Europe, just putting on a band aid and postponing the problems endlessly," he said.
"Some analysts think that there`s a chance economic data will surprise on the upside but I think, if anything, it will be on the downside," Faber added.
He believes that some companies will start to disappoint in the second half of this year.
China Bigger Risk
Second-quarter results so far have been a mixed bag, with major European banks such as BNP Paribas and Barclays announcing disappointing results on Tuesday, while earlier in the weekMotorola and engineering giant EADS performed better than expected.
The most recent plan for US debt, which the Senate will vote on Tuesday afternoon, involves more than $1 trillion of spending cuts and a hard-won raising of the debt ceiling.
Faber argues that China disappointing "is a much bigger risk for the global economy than the US because the US is no longer a major commodities buyer".
He believes that the impact of a decline in Chinese growth on the oil price could be critical for major commodities producers like Canada, Australia and the Middle East.
"If commodity prices are falling, then commodity producers will buy fewer goods from China," he pointed out. "This is something that the world central bankers can`t deal with."
Food price inflation is more of a problem in emerging markets than in the developed world as food is typically a much bigger part of annual spend in poorer countries, Faber pointed out, arguing that this could lead to worse than expected growth in China.
Faber, who describes himself as "ultra-bearish", said that he thinks that precious metals are the best place to be at the moment.
Despite worries about major euro zone economies including Italy, he is relatively bullish on the survival of the euro.
"What surprises me more is actually the strength of the euro and that it has not collapsed yet," he said
He believes that peripheral economies which drag down the euro will eventually be "chucked out" of the single currency.
"I would have chucked out Greece three years ago, straight away, and it would have been much cheaper," Faber said.
Gold`s (Exchange: xau=) position as a safe haven will continue to keep prices close to their recent historical highs, Faber believes. He said that he would buy gold if it falls below USD 150 per ounce again.
Copyright 2011 cnbc.com
Monday, August 1, 2011
Signs of a double-dip have emerged: Meredith Whitney
Analyst Meredith Whitney said she's seeing signs of a double-dip as cities and towns continue to get squeezed by cuts in federal funding.
This is certain to get worse as Congress and President Obama try to work out a deal on the debt ceiling, she said.
"I never envisioned we would come to this point where Congress couldn`t agree on raising the debt ceiling or we`d be in this dire situation politically," the head of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group told CNBC Monday.
"Our GDP number on Friday was an indication that states and local governments, which make up 12% of GDP, are really pulling back," she added. "We're certainly in a double dip on housing," which is putting "enormous pressure on the economy."
The states most tied to housing have had to cut social programs and raise taxes, which, in turn, pushes home values down even further, she said. Those states with "clean" balance sheets in areas she calls "the emerging markets of the United States" attract more business, have more tax surpluses and don`t have to raise taxes.
Some states are in bad shape because they relied so heavily on federal stimulus money, which ran out at the end of June, she said. Forty-six states have passed balanced budgets that include big cuts.
"This affects the macro environment, this affects employment, this affects spending, this affects every corporation within the United States because so many corporations are reliant on contracts from state and local governments," Whitney said. "So this [debt crisis] situation in DC exacerbates it, but the states are in a bad situation even without the situation in DC.
Another reason she is predicting a double-dip is layoffs, citing 50,000 jobs cut just on Wall Street, with thousands more by nonfinancial firms including Merck.
"All industries will [cut staff] and then it will get really bad when the state and local governments really start to impact the corporations" when they are forced to cut back on issuing contracts, she said.
Whitney, who predicted a wave of municipal defaults earlier this year worth upwards of USD 100 billion, stood by her predictions.
Her call on defaults "is playing out exactly as I thought it would," she said, but she stressed that "muni bond defaults are just a product of overspending and overleveraging the system. The call is so much bigger than what happens in the municipal bond world."
Copyright 2011 cnbc.com
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Stop wasting food, feed a billion needy
When your mother asked you to clean your plate so that no child goes hungry, she was right. It is still the easiest way to increase the world’s food supply by a third in these expensive times. In theory, that is. In reality, some kinds of wastage are harder to stop than others. ET helps you join the dots. One kind of loss is familiar. It happens on millions of small farms in the world’s poorer nations. Farm produce is lost after the harvest during storage and transportation.
Rats and insects eat into crops while heat and humidity make them rot. For farmers, each kilo lost is also income loss. But they watch helplessly as lack of scale and lack of funds put preventive measures beyond their reach. In India, such loss takes away 3% of cereal supply. Ministry of Food Processing says fruits and vegetables worth . 55,000 crore are wasted annually due to heat and poor handling. On the flipside, our small budgets make us thrifty food consumers. A family only buy enough for a week or sometimes even for that day. There are recipes for each part of a vegetable.
We eat leftovers, re-use , recycle and give away extra to the maid. Conspicuous waste is mostly at wedding and festival feasts. Entire distribution chains have developed for handling waste. Cooking oil is a classic example. India’s better hotels change their frying oil frequently. The used oil is systematically collected, cleaned and sold to smaller restaurants, cafeterias and canteens. Secondhand oil from these kitchens is bought by the neighbourhood halwa . Their residue is sold to roadside dhabas and vendors. Not a drop is wasted. In China, 3 million tonnes 'ditch oil' collected from restaurants and even trash heaps is consumed annually , according to one investigative report.
This extreme food recycling is illegal and hazardous for health. But you get the picture. A different kind of waste occurs in developed countries. Rich countries produce 900 kg food for each person, two times more than the poorest regions. Little is lost postharvest . But 40% of this food is wasted in the kitchen and supermarket . Retailers reject any fresh produce that doesn’t look just so. Consumers over-stock their fridge, tempted by "Buy three, pay two" type promotions . Oversized ready-to-eat meals make it tough to finish a portion .
A UK government agency survey says British households throw away 8 million tonnes of food and drink every year, 60% of which could have been eaten. The sheer size of the problem is startling. FAO this month estimated consumers in rich countries waste almost as much food (222 million tonnes) as the entire net food production of sub-Saharan Africa. Each consumer in Europe and North America throws away 95-115 kg a year. Consumers in sub-Saharan Africa and South and Southeast Asia each throw away only 6-11 kg a year. Herein lies the challenge. Postharvest loss is easier to tackle because both farmers and governments are keen on a solution. The necessary technology, management and financing are all available .
Waste in rich nations is cultural and goes deeper. Until consumers realize the enormity of their actions , food will continue to get trashed. Few governments have the political will to take on such a touchy subject. Awareness about recycling, composting, portion size and the carbon footprint of wasted food is spreading. As the battle with obesity shows, food habits are tough to dislodge. Compared to consumers in developed nations, we may feel smug for now. But with rising incomes, Indian consumers could well acquire equally wasteful habits.
Modern retailers, for instance, know we first eat with our eyes. Fruits and vegetables on supermarket shelves are much better looking than those sold by the roadside hawker. Great care is taken to reject “off spec” produce that is wholesome otherwise . If retailers don’t adopt a zero waste policy, over time urban fruit and vegetable shortages could worsen. Food loss and waste are a major squandering of precious resources , including water, land, energy , labour and capital.
Experts say we need 70% more food in the next 40 years. But food in dustbins shows consumer demand in developed countries may be exaggerated . By saving the one billion tonnes that is lost each year, producers and consumers can take some pressure off agriculture. And perhaps also feed the world's one billion hungry people. Cleaning up your plate is sound economic sense. Mother did know best.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
टेक्निकल क्लासरूम
तकनीकी विश्लेषण क्या है?
तकनीकी विश्लेषण का मतलब होता है शेयर के भाव के चार्ट्स की समीक्षा करके भविष्य के उतार-चढ़ाव की जानकारी पता करना। यह समझना जरूरी है कि तकनीकी विश्लेषण पूरी तरह से शेयर की कीमतों पर आधारित होता है। कंपनी की मूलभूत जानकारियों, जैसे मुनाफा, बिक्री, कर्ज, का इस्तेमाल तकनीकी विश्लेषण में नहीं किया जाता है। साथ ही, विश्लेषण करते समय माना जाता है कि बाजार से जुड़ी और दूसरी सभी जानकारी उपलब्ध हैं और उनका इस्तेमाल शेयर का चार्ट बनाते वक्त किया गया है।
तकनीकी विश्लेषण का मुख्य सिद्धांत है कि शेयर बाजार पूरी तरह से पारदर्शीय है और बाजार के सभी प्रतिभागी कुशल हैं। बिना किसी ठोस कारण के शेयरों की खरीद-फरोख्त तकनीकी विश्लेषण सिद्धांतों के खिलाफ है। फंडामेंटल विश्लेषण के मुकाबले तकनीकी विश्लेषण में ज्यादा लचीलापन है। फंडामेंटल विश्लेषण शेयरों के उतार-चढ़ाव को जानने के लिए तिमाही नतीजों, आय पर गाइडेंस और कंपनी नीतियों में बदलाव पर निर्भर करता है।
अगर ये माना जाए कि फंडामेंटल विश्लेषण ही शेयरों के उतार-चढ़ाव की सही तौर पर बता सकता है, तो ऐसे में शेयरों की कीमतों में साल में 4-5 बार ही बदलाव दिखना चाहिए। लेकिन, ऐसा नहीं होता है। शेयरों के भाव रोजाना बढ़ते-घटते हैं। इस उतार-चढ़ाव के बारे में तकनीकी विश्लेषण से ही पता किया जा सकता है।
रिलेटिव स्ट्रेंथ कंपैरेटिव क्या है?
तकनीकी विश्लेषण से हम किसी भी शेयर की रिलेटिव स्ट्रेंथ कंपैरेटिव (आरएससी) पता लगा सकते हैं। रिलेटिव स्ट्रेंथ कंपैरेटिव का मतलब है शेयर के उतार-चढ़ाव की किसी सूचकांक, दूसरी कंपनी के शेयर या फिर सेक्टर से तुलना कर सकते हैं।
किसी शेयर के पिछले प्रदर्शन को जानने के लिए आरएससी का इस्तेमाल किया जा सकता है। आरएससी के नतीजों से आप जान पाएंगे कि शेयर में निवेश करना फायदेमंद रहेगा या नहीं।
जिन शेयरों में सूचकांकों से ज्यादा उतार-चढ़ाव दिखता है जरूरी नहीं है कि शेयर किसी एक दिशा में कारोबार करे। जिन शेयर का आरएससी कोअफिशन्ट ज्यादा होता है, वो शेयर सूचकांक से ज्यादा चढ़ते हैं। लेकिन, सूचकांकों के मुकाबले इन शेयरों में धीमी गिरावट दिखती है।
ऐसे शेयरों में निवेश करने से ज्यादा से ज्यादा मुनाफा कमाया जा सकता है।
कंटिन्यूएशन और रिवर्सल पैटर्न क्या होते हैं?
कंटिन्यूएशन पैटर्न की मदद से बढ़त वाले शेयरों के बारे में पता चलता है और शेयर की आगामी कीमत बताई जा सकती है। वहीं, रिवर्सल पैटर्न से कमजोरी वाले शेयरों के बारे में पता जा सकता है और उनकी कीमत का अंदाजा लगाया जा सकता है।
रिवर्सल पैटर्न से पता चल सकता है कि शेयर बाजार में तेजी जारी रहेगी या फिर गिरावट का सिलसिला शुरू होने वाला है।
चैनल, सूचकांक और ट्रेंडलाइंस कंटिन्यूएशन पैटर्न का हिस्सा होते हैं। रिवर्सल पैटर्न में आयलैंड रिवर्सल, मूविंग एवरेज क्रॉसओवर और हेड-शोल्डर फॉर्मेशन (शेयरों के वॉल्यूम में उतार-चढ़ाव का पैटर्न) शामिल होते हैं।
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