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Friday, July 27, 2012

How bad is the monsoon situation? Pretty bad, says Crisil


DK Joshi, chief economist at Crisil says the current monsoon situation in the country is similar to the drought of 2009.

In its report, ' Monsoons- 2009 situation yet again? ' Crisil has said the impact of deficient rainfall is worse in case of some crops when compared to the 2009 situation.

"Pulses, oilseeds and coarse cereals impacted the most so far," Joshi told CNBC-TV18 in an interview.

Crisil measures the impact of rainfall using an index named Deficient Rainfall Impact Parameter (DRIP) that was developed in 2002. DRIP is based on the premise that both the availability of irrigation and the level of precipitation affect crop production. Accordingly, it is computed as a product of percentage deviation of rainfall and percentage un-irrigated area.

The situation may improve if rains pick up August-September, Joshi believes. "We see the GDP being impacted by 0.7% due to weak monsoon," he says.

Joshi says the government spending is set to rise of monsoon does not pick up soon.

Meanwhile, the Met Deparment continued to put on a brave face.

The monsoon rains will "fill up" the deficiency in coming days, said LS Rathore, director-general of the India Meteorological Department.

"The only problem is north-west India where rains are poor. That is primarily coarse cereal area," Rathore said after a meeting with Food Minister KV Thomas.

Monsoon rains have so far been 22% below average since the start of the season in June and the government said on Monday overall rainfall was now likely to be below average. Latest weekly rainfall data will be released later on Thursday.
Moneycontrol news

Amitabh Bachchan humbled by London 2012 torch turn

Amitabh Bachchan humbled by London 2012 torch turn
Bollywood superstar Amitabh Bachchan said he felt proud and honoured by an "indescribable" experience after he carried the Olympic flame as thousands of people cheered him on in London on Thursday.

The 69-year-old Indian actor brought the torch through Southwark in south London as Olympic excitement reached fever pitch in the capital one day before the opening ceremony.

The streets were packed with people cheering and taking pictures as the " Big B" jogged past.

"Faced many situations where enormity of crowd and its response was unbelievable. But today with Olympic torch it was indescribable," he tweeted afterwards.

"It is not a flame you hold, it is the pride of 1.25 billion people of India.

"In times when humanity tears each other apart, it was special to be in an event that brought communities together... beyond all else."

Bachchan said he had been invited by London Games chairman Sebastian Coe.

He wore the torchbearers' white tracksuit and the number 063 -- his position among the 173 people who were to carry the torch Thursday.

"This is an incredible honour, humbling and so full of pride and emotion," he wrote on his blog.

"A moment to be hopefully remembered by the grandchildren."

The relay will culminate at the opening ceremony in the Olympic Stadium on Friday, but the final torchbearer remains a closely guarded secret.
THE TIMES OF INDIA NEWS
www.marketfutureindia.com

Big B and Kaun Banega Crorepati to return to prime time TV




Quiz show Kaun Banega Crorepati, to be hosted by megastar Amitabh Bachchan yet again, will be back in its prime time slot, channel officials said on Tuesday.

"It will be a prime time show. I can't tell you the exact slot because we are in discussion we are brain storming the right time. But certainly it will be a prime time slot," Sony Entertainment Television (SET) senior vice president and marketing head Danish Khan told IANS.

"We have not decided the days but the talks are on. We will soon make an official announcement," he added.

KBC had been slotted for either 8.30 or 9 p.m. time band so far.

The channel on Thursday announced yet another marketing and communication campaign Sirf Gyaan Hi Aapko Aapka Haq Dila Sakta Hai as the communication theme for the upcoming season of the game show.

"The challenge was how do we take the philosophy to the next level. We came up with Gyaan hi aapko aapka haq dilata Hai because it's a great factor to empower people. When you see the show you will see shades of that," said Mr Khan.

"One of the most important part of the show is how we democratise the entire KBC. We have taken immense pain with lot of pleasure to ensure that we expand the base of KBC. Every time you are going to see KBC episode, you will see a small India," he added.

Mr Bachchan, who has been hosting various seasons of KBC for quite some time, will be seen again for the KBC 2012 as well. Mr Khan said they couldn't think of anyone else in his place.

"There is absolutely nobody like Mr Bachchan. His appeal transcends across all the age groups. He can relate and connect with people of all backgrounds. His command over the language - Hindi, English and many other local language, his humility and sincerity these are the factors that drives his popularity."

"And that brings immense popularity to our show. People are eager to watch him again on KBC. I can't think of anybody else."

KBC 2012 is slated to telecast by August end or by September.
NDTV NEWS
www.marketfutureindia.com

Ambuja Cements has target of Rs 200: Sukhani


Ambuja Cements  has target of Rs 200, says Sudarshan Sukhani of s2analytics.com.

Sukhani told CNBC-TV18, "Ambuja Cements has a wonderful chart. I don’t know what is going on in cement, to some extent in ACC and far more in Ambuja. It is making a bullish a pattern at these elevated levels and breaking out from it. It is promising a target of Rs 200 plus. I don’t know whether that is justified or not but as momentum traders we must go long in it. Today if there is an intraday dip even after the first 15 minutes; take Ambuja as on long position."

He further added, " Dabur India  has a good chart. We could not believe that HUL could go up more but it started going up and it never stops, just goes through corrections and goes up. Same story is happening with Dabur and the same story as I had earlier suggested was with Marico. These stocks are apparently being liked by momentum traders, by people who put smart money. Dabur is now at the verge of making new highs. We don’t challenge that. It is also in the right sector at the right time. Today I think there is buying there."
Moneycontrol news

ICICI Bank Q1 profit jumps 36 pct, beats forecast


(Reuters) - ICICI Bank(ICBK.NS), India's top private lender, posted on Friday a 36.3 percent jump in quarterly profit, its strongest growth in more than a year, helped by robust loan growth, high fee income and better asset quality.

ICICI said it made a net profit of 18.15 billion rupees in the fiscal first quarter ended June compared with 13.32 billion rupees a year earlier. Analysts, on average, had expected profit of 17.4 billion rupees, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

The strong results vindicate its low-risk strategy, as India's economy slows. The bank was dealt a severe blow by the global financial crisis as its bold bets on consumer loans soured but has subsequently cleaned up its books.

The results also show that private banks are better placed for profit growth in the current environment than government-owned banks, which account for 70 percent of the market in India but whose lending decisions are not always driven by commercial considerations.

State-run Canara Bank (CNBK.NS) missed street estimates in its latest quarterly earnings while No.2 state lender Punjab National Bank (PNBK.NS) also disappointed with a spurt in bad loans.

But smaller private lenders HDFC Bank (HDBK.NS), Axis Bank (AXBK.NS) and Yes Bank (YESB.NS) all recently reported strong profit growth.

Government-run State Bank of India (SBI.NS_6">SBI.NS), the country's No.1 lender which controls about a quarter of the nation's loans and deposits, is yet to report.

High interest rates to rein in racing inflation and New Delhi's slow pace of implementing reforms have put the brakes on India's economy, which grew 8-9 percent between 2005 and 2008.

The International Monetary Fund has sharply downgraded growth estimates for India to 6.1 percent this fiscal year and 6.5 percent in the next.

ICICI's net non-performing loans as percentage of total loans dropped to 0.71 percent from 1.04 percent. Net interest income, or the difference of interest earned and interest expended, rose about a third to 31.9 billion rupees.

ICICI shares were up 3.09 percent at 0700 GMT. They have risen about a third since the start of the year, outperforming the 28 percent growth in the BSE banking index and a 10 percent growth in the broader market during the same period.

(Reporting by Swati Pandey; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)

Mid-cap stocks take a dive on margin calls

MUMBAI: Traders were caught off guard and 20-odd mid-cap stocks crashed on Thursday as Dalal Street got a whiff of default by a Kolkata-based operator who had arranged finance for many punters. The wave of selling in early trades baffled stock dealers, who tried to figure out how long the margin selling could last. 

The operator, who was involved in the 2001 payment crisis in the Calcutta Stock Exchange and whose name figured in a 2010 Intelligence Bureau report, has changed tack in recent years. 

He took positions in several small- and mid-cap stocks through front entities and arranged funding from several non-banking finance companies, including a few leading ones. According to market circles, he even maintained his links with Ketan Parekh, the disgraced broker who perpetrated the 2001 securities scam. 
THE TIMES OF INDIA NEWS
www.marketfutureindia.com

Thursday, July 26, 2012

India discusses possible drought, monsoon rains poor


India's government raised the possibility of a drought for the first time this year and said on Thursday that ministers would meet next week to discuss the lack of monsoon rains, which define output for the major consumer and producer of food crops.
It will be the first time the Empowered Group of Ministers (EGoM) on drought has met since 2009, which saw the driest monsoon in nearly four decades in Asia's third-largest economy, where more than half of arable land is rain-fed.


Halfway through the June to September season, rains are 22 percent below average, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday, days after the government kicked off contingency plans for a below-normal monsoon.
"An (empowered group of ministers) on drought is likely to meet on Tuesday, but I am seeking the availability of other ministers," Farm Minister Sharad Pawar told reporters. "We will discuss the situation there."
The meeting could be around August 1, said V Narayanasamy, a junior minister in the prime minister's office, adding the government would review the situation after 15 days. "We have asked the states for their assessment reports and we will then verify independently to arrive at a decision," he told Reuters.
The four-month monsoon brings 75 percent of annual rainfall and half of that is usually delivered in June and July, when rainfall this year only managed to reach 2009's drought levels.
The crisis for one of the world's largest consumers and producers of commodities including sugar, rice, cereals, oilseeds and pulses comes as global prices for cereals reach record highs on a major drought in the United States.
New Delhi on Monday said the supply of water this year was below average but it stopped short of calling it a drought, which means rains at best 90 percent of long-term averages.
The Indian Meteorological Department will issue its next official forecast, focusing on August and September, before the end of July.
Parts of central India, the northern plains and the coastal belt should see moderate to heavy rainfall until early next week but western India and the interior south peninsula will continue to have a shortfall, said S.C. Bhan, a director of the IMD.
The government is already providing supplies of high-yielding seed varieties, ensuring fodder availability and increasing power supplies to some areas as farmers across the country struggle to plant summer crops in the dry earth.
New Delhi, already battling to contain double-digit food inflation, now faces further price increases due to food shortages for its 1.2 billion people, some 42 percent of whom live in poverty.
And increased demand for diesel, which is used for irrigation when rains fail, has put pressure on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to hold off on widely anticipated fuel price rises, making budget targets harder to achieve.
PULSES, OILSEEDS OUTPUT HIT
Food Minister K.V. Thomas said the poor rains could cut output of pulses and oilseeds and that could mean India, already the world's largest importer of lentils and edible oils, has to buy more from overseas suppliers.
Rains improved over soybean growing areas of central India last week, the IMD said, but it might not be enough to revive planting which is lagging last year for all crops except cane.
Rice and cane production are not expected to suffer as farmers still have time to catch up on sowing with rains in West Bengal and Odisha only 2 percent below normal last week and ample in Uttar Pradesh, one of the top cane producing states.
But at least for now, there are no plans to ban exports, Thomas added, although the government will review the situation in mid-August. India currently allows exports of rice, sugar, cotton, corn and wheat.
New Delhi will also decide next week whether to ban futures trading in selected farm commodities that have seen extreme price moves, government sources said. Sugar and chick pea futures have been most volatile recently.
On Thursday, sugar and chick pea, or chana, futures eased on concerns the government might put restrictions on futures trade in these commodities.
Soybean and soyoil futures, however, fell on a drop in the overseas markets and as rainfall in the top soybean producing Madhya Pradesh state in the past two days allayed concerns over poor yields.

Business Standard

सेंसेक्स छू सकता है 20000 का स्तर: बेजान दारूवाला


जानेमाने ज्योतिष बेजान दारूवाला की भविष्यवाणी है कि चालू कारोबारी साल में सेंसेक्स 16,000-20,000 के दायरे में रहेगा। वहीं अगले 1 साल तक इक्विटी बाजार में निवेश का माहौल दबाव में रह सकता है। हालांकि 1 साल बाद बाजार में निवेश के बेहतर मौके पैदा होंगे। ऐसे में फिलहाल बाजार को लेकर आशावादी रहना उचित होगा।

बेजान दारूवाला के मुताबिक मौजूदा समय भारतीय बाजारों के लिए कुछ तकलीफदेह है। वैश्विक हालातों को लेकर भी चिंताएं बरकरार हैं। लेकिन अक्टूबर महीने से हालातों में सुधार होता दिखाई देगा। वहीं प्रधानमंत्री मनमोहन सिंह अगले 21 दिनों में आर्थिक सुधारों की ओर अहम कदम उठाएंगे। जिससे धीरे-धीरे परिस्थियों में सुधार आएगा।

केंद्र सरकार के कार्यकाल को लेकर अनिश्चितताओं पर बेजान दारूवाला की राय है कि सरकार यदि अक्टूबर तक चल जाती है तो वह अपना कार्यकाल पूरा करेगी।
Moneycontrol news

क्यों मचा मिडकैप शेयरों में कोहराम


आज बाजार में कुछ मिडकैप शेयरों में अचानक ही भारी गिरावट देखी गई। एक वक्त तो ट्यूलिप टेली 45 फीसदी तक गिर गया था। इसके अलावा कई मिडकैप कंपनियों के शेयर लोअर सर्किट पर पहुंचे। पार्श्वनाथ डेवलपर, पिपावाव डिफेंस, रैडिको खेतान, एसआरएस और एटूजेड में भी कोहराम मच गया।

दरअसल कोलकाता के एक बड़े फाइनेंशर की तरफ से शेयर बेचने की अटकलें हैं जिससे इन मिडकैप शेयरों में भारी गिरावट आई। इसके अलावा मॉरिशस के एफआईआई ने पी नोट्स के जरिए मिडकैप शेयरों में अपनी हिस्सेदारी बेचने की खबरें आ रही हैं। साथ ही मिडकैप शेयरों में हुए प्लेसमेंट में रेगुलेटरी एक्शन की अटकलें हैं। एनएसई ने करीब 2 हफ्ते पहले ब्रोकरों से कुछ मिडकैप शेयरों में क्लाइंट की बनाई गई पोजिशन पर सवाल उठाए हैं।

साथ ही गिरवी रखी हिस्सेदारी से भी मिडकैप शेयरों में दबाव बना।ट्यूलिप टेली के प्रोमोटरों की 46 फीसदी हिस्सेदारी गिरवी है।सुमीत इंडस्ट्रीज के 60 फीसदी की हिस्सेदारी गिरवी है। ग्लोडाइन टेक के प्रोमोटरों की 84 फीसदी हिस्सेदारी गिरवी रखी हुई है।पिपावाव डिफेंस के प्रोमोटरों की 97 फीसदी हिस्सेदारी गिरवी है। रैडिको खेतान के प्रोमोटरों की 43 फीसदी हिस्सेदारी गिरवी है। पार्श्वनाथ डेवलपर्स के प्रोमोटरों की 62 फीसदी हिस्सेदारी गिरवी है।
Moneycontrol news

D-Street in despair: Experts say market may tank to 4500


Moneycontrol Bureau

It is despair that unfolded in the last leg this Thursday. A heavy sell-off in the last hour dragged down indices that were already on a down slope. The Nifty ended with a 66 point loss much below the 5,100 level and the Sensex too bled 206 points to shut shop at 16,639.

Dilip Bhat, Joint MD, Prabhudas Lilladher explains that though the factors were against market, there was some kind of relief rally build on expectations of reforms after the Presidential election. However, the market is disappointed now; also European factors are weighing very heavily.

Hence, Bhat feels that over next 6-12 months possibly the market will see a level decisively south of 5000 and maybe closer to 4500 and maybe lower than that gradually.

He warns further PSU banks may lead the fall followed by capital goods particularly Larsen and Toubro.

CLICK HERE to listen to the market wrap with moneycontrol.com's Chelsea Saldanha.

"I think in the intervening period I would still be looking at something like 4800 levels. Of course it will be interspersed with some amount of rallies, but apart from capital goods, banks I think some of the FMCG names also should give away this time. The valuations really are too stretched and too many people are hiding behind that and it’s really one of the most over-owned sectors," he elaborates.

Sudarshan Sukhani, s2analytics.com suggests to remain long in Nifty option in small volumes assuming that in the next 5-10-15 days some news will come that will push the Nifty up at least for a temporary period or may be perhaps for a longer period. However, for short term traders, Sukhani advises not to do any day trading or swing trading. "There is nothing that I can see for tomorrow also," he adds.

Meanwhile, talking about the July series expiry Siddharth Bhamre of Angel Broking explains, "Unfortunately today we were not in between of strikes, we were at 5,100 but lot of weaker hands have adopted same strategy again. That is to selll 5,100 call and 5,100 put and more so even some people sold only 5,100 put and the premium which they got by selling these two ever since morning is around Rs 15-20. This is the reason market is making sure that weaker hands who blindly written this Options just to pocket in last day’s premium won’t make money and that’s the reason this fall has come."

Nasrin Sultana
www.marketfutureindia.com

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Gold futures regain 30k level on festive demand, global cues

NEW DELHI: Gold futures prices today rose by Rs 135 to Rs 30,066 per 10 grams as speculators enlarged their positions on the back of a rise in demand in the spot market amid a firm global trend. 

At the Multi Commodity Exchange, gold for delivery in October rose by Rs 135, or 0.45 per cent to Rs 29,931 per 10 grams in a business turnover of 1,633 lots. 

Similarly, the metal for delivery in August moved up by Rs 119, or 0.40 per cent, to Rs 29,687 per 10 grams in 6,478 lots. 

Market analysts attributed the rise in gold futures prices to increased buying by speculators on the back of a rise in demand in the spot market in view of festive season. 

They said firming global trend also supported the uptrend in gold. 

Meanwhile, gold rose 0.3 per cent to USD 1,585.40 an ounce in Singapore. 
The economic times news
www.marketfutureindia.com

'India at high risk from European crisis'

: India and other key emerging markets have been categorised as having high exposure to Europe's economic woes by a risk analysis firm, Maplecroft.
Of the 169 countries outside of the euro zone, India has been ranked as the 85th most exposed to the European crisis
Among other emerging markets, South Africa was ranked at the 49th position, Russia (50), Brazil (62) and India (85) – all classified as 'high risk' countries in the index.
China, ranked 112th, was rated as 'medium risk'. “These economies are not fully insulated from the slowdown themselves due to trade and investment relations with Europe and an escalating Eurozone crisis could further exacerbate current domestic slowdown in growth forecasts across the BRICS,” Maplecroft said.
According to a new global index by Maplecroft, the UK tops the list of countries which are at 'extreme risk', followed by Poland and Hungary at the second and third position respectively.
With around 50 per cent of its trade coming from the euro-zone, the UK is the most exposed country to the debt crisis in the area and ranks 1st in the index.
The Czech Republic was ranked in the fourth position, followed by Mauritania (5), Mozambique (6), Mauritius (7), Sweden (8), Iceland (9) and Cape Verde at the 10th position.
Maplecroft Analyst Daniel Anavitarte said, “Trade and investment flows may be disrupted from and to emerging economies while large developed nations could see their growth forecast offset due to their large exposure to euro area banks.”
The index includes 169 countries outside of the euro zone and measures trade and foreign direct investment with the euro area; bank claims of euro-zone countries; and domestic economic indicators such as fiscal balance, public debt, inflation and foreign reserves.
Maplecroft concludes that the economic difficulties in the euro zone have highlighted the disadvantages of high levels of integration for member countries, and also for those economies that are integrated with one or more members, which are facing a wider exposure risk.
“Investors should follow closely the developments in the Eurozone as the implications will continue to influence global economic behaviour,” Anavitarte said.
google news

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Diesel price hike hint


New Delhi, July 24: The petroleum ministry plans to move the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs for a hike in diesel and domestic LPG cylinder prices, which have not been revised for more than a year.
"The most important reform is not allowing FDI in retail, but cutting subsidies on diesel, LPG and kerosene," a senior oil ministry official said.
He said "there is consensus that prices of diesel, LPG and even kerosene have to be raised. But when and how is uncertain as the Congress party, which leads the coalition government, does not have sufficient votes to back up a unilateral decision on such a key issue".
A ministerial panel which is authorised to decide on the pricing of the three fuels has not been reconstituted after its previous head Pranab Mukherjee resigned as finance minister to get elected as the President.
In the absence of the empowered group of ministers (EGoM), the ministry is contemplating sending a price hike proposal to the CCEA and leaving the decision to the Prime Minister, the official said.
Sources said the monsoon session of Parliament, which begins in about a fortnight, gave the government a narrow window of opportunity to raise prices.
Any substantial hike close to the session will be seized by the Opposition to disrupt proceedings in Parliament, which is scheduled to discuss some important bills.
Diesel prices are considered politically sensitive because any hike would impact the cost of food articles, transportation and trigger discontent among voters.
According to latest government data, diesel sales rose 13.9 per cent in June to 6.08 million tonnes from a year earlier, while petrol consumption picked up 7.2 per cent to 1.34 million tonnes.
Demand for diesel, which accounts for over 40 per cent of refined fuel consumption in the country, is set to rise 5.9 per cent to 68.55 million tonnes, while that of gasoline is expected to grow 5.8 per cent to 15.86 million tonnes in the current fiscal, the government has said.
Gas pricing
The government has reconstituted the high-powered ministerial panel which would decide if the price of natural gas produced by Reliance Industries from KG-D6 fields can be revised before 2014.
"The empowered group of ministers has been reconstituted. It will now be headed by defence minister A K Antony," oil ministry official said.
yahoo news

NEWS UPDATE:-FOR F&O


NEWS UPDATE:- THIS IS A VERY SAD NEWS FOR US THAT JET AIRWAYS ,ABAN OFFSHORE,BF UTILITIES, BGR ENERGY, BOMBAY DYEING,EDUCOMP SOLUTIONS,HINDUSTAN OIL EXPLORATION,ORCHID CHEM., TTK PRESTIGE,VIP INDUSTRIES, TATA COFFEE, TVS MOTORS & SOME OTHER IMPORTANT COMPANIES REMOVED FROM F&O FROM THE NEXT CONTRACT, SO TRADING OF THESE STOCKS IN STOCK FUTURE WILL NOT POSSIBLE FROM THE NEXT CONTRACT

ING Vysya Bank has target of Rs 470-475: Aashish Tater


"ING Vysya Bank has been our stable bet from last one year perspective where we have been recommending this stock right from that Rs 310 levels from 2-3 years perspective for 25% YoY growth."
He further added, "If I take the adjusted book value for next year, the stock roughly trades at less than 1.3 times next year adjusted book value per share which given to large players like HDFC Bank, Yes Bank, Axis Bank and ICICI Bank is trading at much steeper discount. So we feel that eventually with good performance the company would bridge this particular gap and that’s why we have been maintaining a very positive buy on this particular stock along with Yes Bank.”

"Take a call where a company is going to grow at 25% because of good asset base and very good balance sheet structure we feel from banking space you have to look on companies, which has the potential to grow 20-25% and the price-to-book value will materialize once the company becomes very weak."

"On a market cap of Rs 6,000 crore odd with 43% owned by the promoters and almost everything is owned by institution and large players there is hardly any float onto the stock and given that we are working with a price-to-book of roughly around 1.7 odd times we feel even on conservative side the next year target for the stock would be somewhere around Rs 470-475."

"Take a call from after that year perspective, we again I think will have 20-22% upside even from that levels. So this is one stock which should be part of your portfolio from longer term perspective rather than from short-term angle."
moneycontrol news

Nifty may slip below 5100, but keep long positions: Sukhani

Technical analyst Sudarshan Sukhani of s2analytics.com expects Nifty to slip below 5,100 levels today. However, he hopes that long positions taken yesterday would be maintained since Nifty has a strong support at 5,100 level.

It was completely listless trade on Wednesday as Nifty remained in a narrow range due to lack of global and local cues. It gained 10.25 points to end 5,128.20.

"At this point, having a short position especially at a strong support level is not something I am keen at. I am maintaining small volumes in my long positions," he elaborated.
moneycontrol news

Weak monsoon to impact consumption, FMCG names: Nine Rivers

Apart from the weak data emerging from the eurozone, Indian equities have domestic headwinds to contend with as well. Lack of government action, sluggish growth and high inflation has plagued the market for the past many months, but now a more serious issue has cropped up.

Weak monsoon this year has hit sentiment in the country, increasing worries about the country’s economic development. The Indian Meteorological Department has said that rain deficit average is 22%, but some parts of the country are approaching drought like conditions.

This situation will pose as a hurdle for the market going forward, says Sangeeta Purushottam, managing director of Nine Rivers Capital. In an interview to CNBC-TV18, she says that the street cannot shrug this off because of the impact that it has on the economy.

“I think at the economic level, a poor monsoon will impact consumption and the FMCG pack could see down trading happening,” she said, adding that “whatever is linked to monsoon, be it tractors or be it fertilizers etc, will be pockets which will get affected.”

However, from the FMCG space, Purushottam is positive on HUL for the near-term. Valuations are stretched, but she believes this will sustain because of the company’s earnings growth. “Where it gets a little dangerous is if you are buying it with a long-term perspective, because then you have very little room for error here,” she said.

She is also positive on HCL Tech , but has a bearish outlook for Maruti .
moneycontrol news

Monsoon situation almost drought-like: Ashok Gulati


by CNBC-TV18 | 24th-Jul-12 19:53
With hopes of monsoon revival fading, Ashok Gulati, Chairman, Commission of Agricultural Costs & Prices, said that government must take steps to save crops.

"The issue as it stands today is very close to a drought situation and I feel the time to wait is almost over. It is time to act and save the crop wherever we can," Ashok Gulati said. 

With western India facing the dearth of rain the most, it seems that only magical recovery of rain in the coming weeks can change the situation.

Now, with the government ringing the warning bell of a possibility of drought, it seems that the time has come to take measures to save crops from adverse effects of depleted monsoon. 

Wipro says market share gains likely in 12-18 months

Wipro , India's No. 3 software services exporter, reported an 18% rise in quarterly net profit, meeting expectations, as customers outsourced more work to the company to cut their operational expenses.


India's USD 100 billion export-driven outsourcing sector faces diminishing hopes of an early revival in demand as their biggest markets, the United States and Europe, grapple with an uncertain economic and political climate.

We managed to maintain pricing despite tough environment, CFO Suresh Senapaty told CNBC-TV18 in an interview.  

Earlier this month, Infosys Ltd, the no. 2 software exporter, made a bigger-than-expected cut in its revenue growth forecast for the current fiscal year. But sector leader Tata Consultancy Services Ltd beat expectations with a 38% rise in quarterly net profit.
 
Wipro managed a constant currency dollar revenue growth at 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, inline with their guidance. The first quarter cross currency impact stood at USD 25 million.  

The IT major said its top five clients grew by around 5% sequentially. "Our focus was on client mining," TK Kurien, CEO (IT business) & Executive Director says adding, "market share gains likely in 12-18 months."

Wipro added one USD 100 million client in Q1 and has a total of eight such clients now. "The retail banking division is showing good growth but we have seen some pricing decline in investment banking," the management told the channel.

Delayed projects and overall slump in the IT services segment are forcing tech majors to push back joining dates of freshers. IT majors such as Infosys and Mahindra Satyam are all grappling with their existing bench before they can accommodate fresh recruits.

However, Wipro says it is not looking to cut back on hiring to protect margins. "We expect margins to hover in a narrow band," the company officials say.
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दिसंबर तक निफ्टी होगा 6000 पर: रिदम देसाई


बाजार की नजर अब आरबीआई के साथ-साथ प्रधानमंत्री मनमोहन सिंह पर भी टिकी हुई हैं। 31 जुलाई की क्रेडिट पॉलिसी के नतीजे अर्थव्यवस्था की दिशा तय करेंगे। वहीं प्रधानमंत्री मनमोहन सिंह आर्थिक सुधार का जादू चलाकर बाजार का मूड सुधार सकते हैं। ऐसे में बाजार के दिग्गजों को क्या आशाएं सरकार और आरबीई से, जानते हैंमॉर्गन स्टेनली इंडिया के एमडी रिदम देसाई की राय।

रिदम देसाई के मुताबिक रिजर्व बैंक की नजर देश के बढ़ते वित्तीय घाटे और बेलगाम महंगाई पर है। मौजूदा समय में महंगाई के स्तर को देखते हुए, 31 जुलाई को आरबीआई की क्रेडिट पॉलिसी में दरों में कटौती की उम्मीद बेहद कम है। वहीं अब वह समय आ गया है जब सरकार को आर्थिक सुधारों की ओर कड़े उठाने की जरूरत है।

बाजार के दिग्गज जानकार रिदम देसाई के अनुसार सरकार को मल्टीब्रांड में एफडीआई जैसे मामलों को जल्दी निपटाना चाहिए। क्योंकि मल्टीब्रांड में एफडीआई आने से यह भारतीय बाजारों के लिए एक बेहद सकारात्मक कदम होगा। साथ ही विदेशी निवेशकों के लिए भी भारतीय बाजारों से अच्छे संकेत जाएंगे। वहीं वित्तीय घाटे की खाई को पाटने के लिए सरकार को सब्सिडी के खर्च पर काबू करना चाहिए।

रिदम देसाई का कहना है कि सरकार को जीएसटी जल्द से जल्द लागू करना चाहिए। तेल कंपनियों के घाटे को कम करने के लिए डीजल की कीमतों में बढ़ोतरी जैसे फैसले भी लेने जरूरी हैं। इसके अलावा पावर सेक्टर को राहत देने के लिए सरकार पावर कंपनियों को पर्याप्त कोयला मुहैया कराए। इससे उर्जा क्षेत्र के हालातों में सुधार लाने में मदद मिलेगी। सरकार यदि इऩ सुधारों पर ध्यान देती है और समय रहते जरूरी कदम उठाती है दिसंबर तक निफ्टी 6,000 के स्तर पर पहुंचने की क्षमता रखता है।
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Monday, July 23, 2012

Rupee at 3-week low; global risk assets reel

The rupee fell on Tuesday to its lowest against the dollar this month, as the euro and other global risk assets remained under pressure after Moody's downgraded Germany's sovereign outlook to negative.

At 9:07 a.m., the rupee was at 56.02-56.03 to the dollar versus its last close of 55.9650-55.9750. It fell to as low as 56.10 in early trade, its lowest since June 29.
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Sensex, Nifty choppy; HUL gains 4%, Wipro down 3%

Indian equity benchmarks were completely lacklustre in trade today following mixed Asian cues. FMCG major HUL topped the buying list, rising nearly 4% after stronger than expected numbers in June quarter while third largest software services exporter Wipro fell over 3% as the company could not report stellar performance in the first quarter of FY13.

The BSE benchmark was up 32 points at 16,909.24 and the NSE benchmark gained 8 points at 5,126.20. The broader markets too were choppy in trade.

Siddharth Bhamre of Angel Broking believes that the global factors would decide the future course of the market. "We will be more on the mercy of global cues rather than internals of markets because internal market statistics are not working accordingly," he said.

Though the direction of market is not very clear at this point of time, his outlook is not very bearish. He expects to see some bounce back in the Nifty till the July series expires.

Cigarette major ITC, private sector lender ICICI Bank and software services exporter Infosys gained over 0.5%.

Top car maker Maruti Suzuki gained 1.5% as traders covered their short positions. The stock fell more than 11% since last Thursday due to stoppage of work at its Manesar plant.

Private steel maker Sterlite Industries rallied over 2%.

However, country's largest software services exporter TCS declined 0.55%. Engineering and construction major Larsen & Toubro was down 0.3% and state-owned power equipment manufacturer BHEL lost 1.2%.

Advancing shares outnumbered declining by 639 to 539 on the National Stock Exchange.

In the second line shares, Cholamandalam, Wockhardt, Prestige Estate, Tata Global Beverage and Welspun Corp gained 3-5% whereas Responsive Industries, Elantas Beck, Anant Raj Industries, HDIL and Jaypee Infra fell 3-6%.
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