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मंदी में घिर सकता है देश: प्रधानमंत्री
22 नवंबर 2011
सीएनबीसी आवाज़
प्रधानमंत्री मनमोहन सिंह ने चेतावनी दी कि अगर इकोनॉमी को संभालने के लिए तुरंत कदम नहीं उठाए गए तो देश गंभीर आर्थिक संकट में फंस जाएगा।
प्रधानमंत्री मनमोहन सिंह ने इकोनॉमी के लिए कारगर कदम उठाने के लिए संसद को चलने देने और फैसले लेने में सरकार की मदद करने की अपील की।
वहीं वित्त मंत्री प्रणव मुखर्जी ने कहा है कि रुपये में तेज गिरावट की वजह ग्लोबल अनिश्चितता है। इस अनिश्चितता और एफआईआई के पैसे निकालने का दबाव रुपये पर पड़ रहा है और इस वजह से रुपया तेजी से गिरा है।
वित्त मंत्री ने ये भी कहा कि इस गिरावट पर रिजर्व बैंक की नजर बनी हुई है। हालांकि मौजूदा स्थिति में आरबीआई के कदम उठाने से भी रुपये को सहारा नहीं मिलेगा।
आरबीआई गवर्नर डी सुब्बाराव ने कहा है कि समय आने पर आरबीआई रुपये को गिरने से रोकने के लिए दखल दे सकता है, हालांकि वो ये नहीं बता सकते कि आरबीआई ऐसा कब करेगा। आरबीआई के डिप्टी गवर्नर सुबीर गोकर्ण के मुताबिक रुपये की कीमत बाजार के मुताबिक तय हो रही है।
सुबीर गोकर्ण ने कहा कि चिंता, रुपये में उतार-चढ़ाव से नहीं बल्कि तेज गिरावट से है। रुपये की कमजोरी चिंताजनतक है क्योंकि इससे इंपोर्ट महंगा रहा है, लेकिन अभी रुपये में दखलंदाजी करने का सही वक्त नहीं आया है।
रुपया टूट रहा लेकिन सरकार हड़बड़ी में कोई कदम नहीं उठाएगी। सुबीर गोकर्ण ने कहा कि रुपये की कमजोरी से महंगाई दर पर असर पड़ सकता है लेकिन सरकार कोई भी मध्यम अवधि को ध्यान में रखकर कदम उठाएगी।
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
Stay out, a further crash is coming: Baliga
Ambareesh Baliga, chief operating officer of Way2Wealth joins CNBC-TV18 to give his outlook of the market today. He advises staying out of the market now. "If Nifty breaks 4700, then we could easily see it breaking another 400-500 points," he says.
He also comments on the midcap space and certain stocks.
Below is the edited transcript of the interview. Also watch the accompanying video.
Q: Do you think Nifty is going to break 4700 this time or do you expect 4800 support to hold out through the November-December series?
A: That is the most important level which we need to wait and watch out for because if you look at stocks individually, quite a few are quoting the indices at 3500 levels, not even 4200 levels. So 4700 is going to be just a psychological level, but it’s an important level to watch out for. If that is broken, then we could easily see Nifty breaking another 400-500 points. That is one of the reasons why I have been saying that for the last 10 days surely its time to stay out. This is not the time to venture out and start buying because you have individual stocks really crashing down. In just about two-three days, we see stocks crashing 20-30%. So it doesn’t really make sense putting fresh cash at this point of time because clearly, rupee is the biggest worry right now.
Q: If it gets to that 4700 level, would you recommend for clients to start buying because nine times out of ten, December has been a month of positive returns for the market, is it different this time?
A: I really don’t know whether it will be different this time because October again was different than what people thought really in the beginning. They said that it could be a bad month, but it turned out to be a decently good month. So let us not speculate as to whether it would hold at 4700 levels or not. I think we just need to wait and watch out. If you are not doing anything in the market, it is best to just wait and watch for those levels. However, if 4700 holds and we see a decent bounce back from there and it consolidates at those higher levels, only after that I will say possibly it’s time to venture out. Till then stay out.
Q: What is happening with all those consumer stories like VIP , Titan , Jubilant Foodworks ?
A: I think these are the only stocks where people are making some money as far as midcaps are concerned. The issue is that some of these stocks have marquee investors, they have those large institutional investments and even some amount of selling coming in from those quarters that can actually break the price. So people are trying to book out before those large investors try and exit.
Q: What are you telling your clients to do on this beaten midcaps, do you see them falling disproportionately more compared to large caps as they have in the last fortnight?
A: In fact in the past six-seven months, we have been telling our clients to buy selectively because whenever we have bought all those major downtick base, we have seen a decent bounce back and we have been able to sell partially at those higher levels. But over the past ten days, I have been telling my clients to stay out because looking at those situation which is quite fluid, it doesn’t make sense being brave and venturing out and buying at this point of time. We don’t know which stock is going to crack next. We are not talking of fundamentals, we are talking of the technical reasons for some of these stocks to crash. So best is to say out.
However, most of the midcaps which have crashed in the recent past two-three months are looking extremely attractive now. Although it may look good today, I will not be surprised if it will look more attractive tomorrow, so it doesn’t make sense buying right now.
Q: What did you make of the news on Pipavav and what would you tell your investors to do there?
A: I would say it is only an announcement because of which we saw that 5-6% bump up yesterday. I would decide once the money really comes in. That is the time we should take a call, not now.
Q: What about Suzlon ?
A: Suzlon anyway is more or less a dead stock as of now, and finally when the promoters themselves have sold off at Rs 25, it doesn’t make sense buying even at Rs 20-21 levels. Whatever you see could be a small bounce back of Rs 2-3. I think the bigger story is lost for now.
Stay out, a further crash is coming: Baliga
Ambareesh Baliga, chief operating officer of Way2Wealth joins CNBC-TV18 to give his outlook of the market today. He advises staying out of the market now. "If Nifty breaks 4700, then we could easily see it breaking another 400-500 points," he says.
He also comments on the midcap space and certain stocks.
Below is the edited transcript of the interview. Also watch the accompanying video.
Q: Do you think Nifty is going to break 4700 this time or do you expect 4800 support to hold out through the November-December series?
A: That is the most important level which we need to wait and watch out for because if you look at stocks individually, quite a few are quoting the indices at 3500 levels, not even 4200 levels. So 4700 is going to be just a psychological level, but it’s an important level to watch out for. If that is broken, then we could easily see Nifty breaking another 400-500 points. That is one of the reasons why I have been saying that for the last 10 days surely its time to stay out. This is not the time to venture out and start buying because you have individual stocks really crashing down. In just about two-three days, we see stocks crashing 20-30%. So it doesn’t really make sense putting fresh cash at this point of time because clearly, rupee is the biggest worry right now.
Q: If it gets to that 4700 level, would you recommend for clients to start buying because nine times out of ten, December has been a month of positive returns for the market, is it different this time?
A: I really don’t know whether it will be different this time because October again was different than what people thought really in the beginning. They said that it could be a bad month, but it turned out to be a decently good month. So let us not speculate as to whether it would hold at 4700 levels or not. I think we just need to wait and watch out. If you are not doing anything in the market, it is best to just wait and watch for those levels. However, if 4700 holds and we see a decent bounce back from there and it consolidates at those higher levels, only after that I will say possibly it’s time to venture out. Till then stay out.
Q: What is happening with all those consumer stories like VIP , Titan , Jubilant Foodworks ?
A: I think these are the only stocks where people are making some money as far as midcaps are concerned. The issue is that some of these stocks have marquee investors, they have those large institutional investments and even some amount of selling coming in from those quarters that can actually break the price. So people are trying to book out before those large investors try and exit.
Q: What are you telling your clients to do on this beaten midcaps, do you see them falling disproportionately more compared to large caps as they have in the last fortnight?
A: In fact in the past six-seven months, we have been telling our clients to buy selectively because whenever we have bought all those major downtick base, we have seen a decent bounce back and we have been able to sell partially at those higher levels. But over the past ten days, I have been telling my clients to stay out because looking at those situation which is quite fluid, it doesn’t make sense being brave and venturing out and buying at this point of time. We don’t know which stock is going to crack next. We are not talking of fundamentals, we are talking of the technical reasons for some of these stocks to crash. So best is to say out.
However, most of the midcaps which have crashed in the recent past two-three months are looking extremely attractive now. Although it may look good today, I will not be surprised if it will look more attractive tomorrow, so it doesn’t make sense buying right now.
Q: What did you make of the news on Pipavav and what would you tell your investors to do there?
A: I would say it is only an announcement because of which we saw that 5-6% bump up yesterday. I would decide once the money really comes in. That is the time we should take a call, not now.
Q: What about Suzlon ?
A: Suzlon anyway is more or less a dead stock as of now, and finally when the promoters themselves have sold off at Rs 25, it doesn’t make sense buying even at Rs 20-21 levels. Whatever you see could be a small bounce back of Rs 2-3. I think the bigger story is lost for now.
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
Market can go down 20% more; surprised by Re slide: UBS
"The rupee free fall has caught market by surprise," said Suresh Mahadevan, managing director and head of Indian equities at UBS Securities. As the rupee stands at its all-time dollar low, with the currency vulnerability adding to the fears over the global volatility, Mahadevan says the instability in the market is most likely to stay for over the next few months.
"The Indian market is the worst performing, globally. The market is moving towards a final leg of capitulation and on a worst case scenario there could be a 20% downside from current levels," Mahadevan cautioned.
In an interview to CNBC-TV18, he held that the negative earnings momentum and the weak sentiment are likely to be an overhang.
Meanwhile, he also said that he expects telecom as a sector to outperform. "I like both Bharti and Idea for long term view," he added. On the other sector picks, Mahadevan prefers M&M and Hero Honda from autos, Godrej Consumers among the FMCG counters at current levels and Mannapuram Finance from the gold finance companies. "Coal India too looks attractive at these levels," he further added.
However, he sees a downside risk in HUL, although said that it is priced to perfection at this point in time. Also, he picks Titan as a good long term bet, although not at the current levels.
Market can go down 20% more; surprised by Re slide: UBS
"The rupee free fall has caught market by surprise," said Suresh Mahadevan, managing director and head of Indian equities at UBS Securities. As the rupee stands at its all-time dollar low, with the currency vulnerability adding to the fears over the global volatility, Mahadevan says the instability in the market is most likely to stay for over the next few months.
"The Indian market is the worst performing, globally. The market is moving towards a final leg of capitulation and on a worst case scenario there could be a 20% downside from current levels," Mahadevan cautioned.
In an interview to CNBC-TV18, he held that the negative earnings momentum and the weak sentiment are likely to be an overhang.
Meanwhile, he also said that he expects telecom as a sector to outperform. "I like both Bharti and Idea for long term view," he added. On the other sector picks, Mahadevan prefers M&M and Hero Honda from autos, Godrej Consumers among the FMCG counters at current levels and Mannapuram Finance from the gold finance companies. "Coal India too looks attractive at these levels," he further added.
However, he sees a downside risk in HUL, although said that it is priced to perfection at this point in time. Also, he picks Titan as a good long term bet, although not at the current levels.
Monday, November 21, 2011
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
Don't cross fingers for pullback rally: Violet Arch Cap
Even though the market started off on a positive note, Mithil Pradhan of Violet Arch Capital Advisors is not expecting to see a pullback rally. Instead, he tells CNBC-TV18 that the daily charts of the Nifty suggest a downside to 4600 levels.
“The only thing that is playing out in favour of the Nifty at this point of time is the sentiment indicators,” he says. Based on that, he thinks the best case scenario is a rally from current levels to 4920 initially or 4956-4985 maximum.
Pradhan goes on to say that this is not the time to short stocks. “Wait for a day or two and then look at buying dips, especially in banks and metals,” he advices.
Below is an edited transcript of his interview with Udayan Mukherjee and Mitali Mukherjee. Also watch the accompanying video.
Q: What is it looking like, are you playing for a pullback on the Nifty or do you expect more downside?
A: I am not the kind of a trader who would play for a pullback in a particular bear market, because things are not really looking good. Two days back we had the CRB Index completing its bear market rally, we have a channel on the Nifty daily charts which suggest a down side to at least 4600 levels and we have a weekly overbought momentum on Nifty.
Right now, the only thing that is playing out in favour of Nifty is our sentiment indicators - the volume put call ratio and the arms index, which are moving into an extreme right now and signal a reversal. So the best case scenario from current levels is that we can rally from 4920 initially to 4956-4985 maximum, which is where it should fizzle out. So I am not playing for a pullback right now.
Q: How carefully are you tracking the Bank Nifty and are you seeing signs of a further breakdown over there?
A: I wouldn’t call this breakdown but incidentally, we are already short on Bank Nifty at much higher levels. What I feel is that there are three bottoms which are extending on the downside. I think 8200- 8250 is the level where people would like to cover shorts and a healthy bounce back can occur from that level.
But if you look at individual stocks like Bank of Baroda , Federal Bank , Axis Bank and SBI , the charts of these stocks are not looking fine, so playing for a pullback is looking difficult in this case.
Q: There has been relentless pressure on the metals. Do you see the possibility of a pullback there or would you still be bearish with trades on names like Sail and Sesa Goa?
A: Lot of these momentum stocks like the metals index, Tata Steel , Sesa Goa , Hindalco and I would say the entire midcap index and the smallcap index form running corrections on daily charts, and running corrections are one of the most ferocious patterns that I have experienced.
The BSE metal index does have a support at 9961-9738 and if these levels hold on then you can possibly look at a rally of at least 10-12% as a rebound. But I really feel the chances are very less. Look at these stock counters, Tata Steel has an amazing support at Rs 360 but it is still about 5-6% away from that particular level. So I am not very sure whether this level should hold on, but 9961-9738 is what traders should now look at.
Q: How are you calling the next series because on that as well there is a fair amount of trepidation on the fact that December is probably seeing even lower levels for the index?
A: I have done a particular study and I have found out that November and December are usually the best months of the entire calendar year. But then the market is becoming so funny nowadays. October, which was supposed to be the worst month, did not produce any negative returns, but we are already down in double digits in November. So I will not use seasonality in predicting this particular market at this point of time.
The way I am playing this is simple, I am looking at the dollar-rupee that you are tracking right now. I see a double top created at the 52 levels; there is a nominal breach of this particular level between yesterday and today, but we are not yet confirmed whether this breakout is a true breakout. So I would rather wait for a day or two, look whether dollar-rupee moves below 52 again.
At the same time, we are reaching 4700 levels on Nifty, we are reaching an important level on metals index and we are about 300 points away on the Bank Nifty. So over and over, I see a lot of supports which are of prime significance for bullish traders. So at this point of time, shorting is a complete no-no. It is best to wait for a day or two and then look at buying dips, especially in the sectors that I discussed right now.
Don't cross fingers for pullback rally: Violet Arch Cap
Even though the market started off on a positive note, Mithil Pradhan of Violet Arch Capital Advisors is not expecting to see a pullback rally. Instead, he tells CNBC-TV18 that the daily charts of the Nifty suggest a downside to 4600 levels.
“The only thing that is playing out in favour of the Nifty at this point of time is the sentiment indicators,” he says. Based on that, he thinks the best case scenario is a rally from current levels to 4920 initially or 4956-4985 maximum.
Pradhan goes on to say that this is not the time to short stocks. “Wait for a day or two and then look at buying dips, especially in banks and metals,” he advices.
Below is an edited transcript of his interview with Udayan Mukherjee and Mitali Mukherjee. Also watch the accompanying video.
Q: What is it looking like, are you playing for a pullback on the Nifty or do you expect more downside?
A: I am not the kind of a trader who would play for a pullback in a particular bear market, because things are not really looking good. Two days back we had the CRB Index completing its bear market rally, we have a channel on the Nifty daily charts which suggest a down side to at least 4600 levels and we have a weekly overbought momentum on Nifty.
Right now, the only thing that is playing out in favour of Nifty is our sentiment indicators - the volume put call ratio and the arms index, which are moving into an extreme right now and signal a reversal. So the best case scenario from current levels is that we can rally from 4920 initially to 4956-4985 maximum, which is where it should fizzle out. So I am not playing for a pullback right now.
Q: How carefully are you tracking the Bank Nifty and are you seeing signs of a further breakdown over there?
A: I wouldn’t call this breakdown but incidentally, we are already short on Bank Nifty at much higher levels. What I feel is that there are three bottoms which are extending on the downside. I think 8200- 8250 is the level where people would like to cover shorts and a healthy bounce back can occur from that level.
But if you look at individual stocks like Bank of Baroda , Federal Bank , Axis Bank and SBI , the charts of these stocks are not looking fine, so playing for a pullback is looking difficult in this case.
Q: There has been relentless pressure on the metals. Do you see the possibility of a pullback there or would you still be bearish with trades on names like Sail and Sesa Goa?
A: Lot of these momentum stocks like the metals index, Tata Steel , Sesa Goa , Hindalco and I would say the entire midcap index and the smallcap index form running corrections on daily charts, and running corrections are one of the most ferocious patterns that I have experienced.
The BSE metal index does have a support at 9961-9738 and if these levels hold on then you can possibly look at a rally of at least 10-12% as a rebound. But I really feel the chances are very less. Look at these stock counters, Tata Steel has an amazing support at Rs 360 but it is still about 5-6% away from that particular level. So I am not very sure whether this level should hold on, but 9961-9738 is what traders should now look at.
Q: How are you calling the next series because on that as well there is a fair amount of trepidation on the fact that December is probably seeing even lower levels for the index?
A: I have done a particular study and I have found out that November and December are usually the best months of the entire calendar year. But then the market is becoming so funny nowadays. October, which was supposed to be the worst month, did not produce any negative returns, but we are already down in double digits in November. So I will not use seasonality in predicting this particular market at this point of time.
The way I am playing this is simple, I am looking at the dollar-rupee that you are tracking right now. I see a double top created at the 52 levels; there is a nominal breach of this particular level between yesterday and today, but we are not yet confirmed whether this breakout is a true breakout. So I would rather wait for a day or two, look whether dollar-rupee moves below 52 again.
At the same time, we are reaching 4700 levels on Nifty, we are reaching an important level on metals index and we are about 300 points away on the Bank Nifty. So over and over, I see a lot of supports which are of prime significance for bullish traders. So at this point of time, shorting is a complete no-no. It is best to wait for a day or two and then look at buying dips, especially in the sectors that I discussed right now.
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