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Friday, November 11, 2011

Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report

Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
भारतीय इकोनॉमी के लिए आ गई बुरी खबर!
भारतीय इकोनॉमी के लिए एक बार फिर से बुरी खबर सामने आ गई है। दरअसल इस साल सितंबर महीने के दौरान औद्योगिक उत्पादन की वृद्धि दर घटकर 1.9 फीसदी के स्तर प आ गई है। इसके पिछले महीने में यह आंकड़ा 3.6 फीसदी के स्तर पर रहा था। जानकारों का कहना है कि रिजर्व बैंक की तरफ से बार बार पॉलिसी दरें बढ़ाए जाने के चलते औद्योगिक उत्पादन वृद्धि दर में गिराट देखने को मिल रही है। आपको यह भी बता दें कि पिछले साल सितंबर महीने में आईआईपी ग्रोथ 6.1 फीसदी रही थी। सितंबर महीने में माइनिंग सेक्टर की ग्रोथ निगेटिव हो गई है और ये इस दौरान -5.6 फीसदी रही। पिछले साल के सितंबर महीने में माइनिंग सेक्टर की ग्रोथ 4.3 फीसदी रही थी। इसी तरह कैपिटल गुड्स सेक्टर की ग्रोथ भी निगेटिव हो कर -6.8 फीसदी के स्तर पर आ गई है। कंज्यूमर गुड्स की ग्रोथ में भी गिरावट आई है और ये 3.5 फीसदी पर पहुंच गई है। वहीं सितंबर में मैन्यूफैक्चरिंग सेक्टर की ग्रोथ घटकर 2.1 फीसदी रही है, जबकि पिछले साल सितंबर में इस सेक्टर की ग्रोथ 6.9 फीसदी रही थी। इन तमाम सेक्टर्स की ग्रोथ रेट में आ रही गिरावट का जानकार शुभ संकेत नहीं मान रहे हैं। जानकारों का कहना है कि स्थिति को काबू में करने के लिए अगर जल्दी कदम नहीं उठाए जाते हैं तो आने वाले दिनों में स्थिति और बुरी हो सकती है।

Thursday, November 10, 2011

कहीं ले न डूबे भारत को इटली की 'बला'-

कहीं ले न डूबे भारत को इटली की 'बला'
ग्रीस के वित्तीय संकट पर बेल आउट के पैकेज को लेकर मार्केट में खुशी की बयार चली ही थी कि इटली पर आर्थिक संकट बढ़ने की खबर ने फिजा ही बदल दी। अब हालत यह है कि अमेरिका और यूरोपीय शेयर मार्केट में इटली संकट का नेगेटिव का असर पड़ना शुरू हो गया है।

शुक्रवार को खुलने वाले भारतीय शेयर मार्केट में इसकी छाप नजर आएगी। अंतरराष्ट्रीय मुद्रा कोष ने साफ कह दिया है कि अगर इटली के वित्तीय संकट को जल्द सुलझाया न गया तो ग्लोबल स्लोडाउन की हवा और तेज हो सकती है। भारत भी इससे अछूता नहीं रहेगा। असर जरूर पड़ेगा, मगर कितना असर पड़ेगा, यह बदलती परिस्थितियों के अनुरूप नीतियों में किस तरह से बदलाव किया जाता है, उस पर निर्भर करेगा। इटली के आर्थिक संकट के बारे में बताती जोसफ बर्नाड की रिपोर्ट:

क्या है इटली का संकट?
इटली का आर्थिक संकट जर्मनी, ग्रीस या अन्य यूरोपीय देशों से कुछ अलग है। विकसित देशों की इकॉनमी बॉन्ड्स मार्केट पर निर्भर करती है। सरकार अपनी आमदनी बॉन्ड्स के जरिए बढ़ाती है और आम आदमी भी बॉन्ड्स के जरिए मुनाफा कमाता है। इटली में नकदी का संकट आया। डिमांड में कमी के कारण औद्योगिक उत्पादन कम हुआ। इसका असर चीजों पर पड़ा। टैक्स कलेक्शन कम हुआ। आमदनी कम हुई और खर्चा बढ़ा। इस कमी को पाटने के लिए सरकार ने बॉन्ड्स का सहारा लिया। बॉन्ड्स जारी किए गए, लेकिन एक गलती हो गई।

बॉन्ड्स ज्यादा बिके, इसके लिए मार्केट में तेजी लाई गई और बॉन्ड्स पर ज्यादा ब्याज बढ़ा दिया। मौजूदा समय में बॉन्ड्स पर 7 पर्सेंट का ब्याज चल रहा है। अगले तीन वर्षों में सरकार ने जितने बॉन्ड्स लोगों को दिए, उसे अब वापस करना है। इसके लिए 475 अरब यूरो चाहिए। ऐसा ब्याज बढ़ने के कारण हुआ है। दूसरी तरफ सरकार पूरी तरह से कर्ज में डूबी हुई है। उस पर करीब 2 खरब यूरो का कर्ज है। कुल आमदनी का करीब 20 से 30 पर्सेंट तो इसके ब्याज पर चला जाता है। आमदनी घट रही है, ऐसे में उसे समझ में नहीं आ रहा है कि देश को कैसे चलाए। बैंकों और वित्तीय संस्थानों की वित्तीय हालत खस्ता हो गई। उन्होंने अपने नकदी को जो इनवेस्टमेंट किया था, उसका रिटर्न मार्केट से नहीं मिल रहा है। लोन की वसूली नहीं हो पा रही है। बढ़ती महंगाई ने आम आदमी के बजट को बिगाड़ दिया है।

क्या है बड़ी समस्या?
इटली के सामने बड़ी समस्या है कि बॉन्ड्स पर उसका ब्याज दर 7 पर्सेंट से ज्यादा है। ऐसे में उसको मार्केट से कर्ज भी इतने पर्सेंट पर मिलेगा। इसके अलावा अन्य देशी या वित्तीय संस्थानों को तय नियम के अनुसार इस ब्याज दर पर उसको कर्ज देना पड़ेगा। अगर इस ब्याज दर इटली ने कर्ज लिया तो उसको चुकाने की क्षमता उनके पास नहीं है क्योंकि पिछले कुछ सालों के दौरान इटली का जीडीपी ग्रोथ नेगेटिव जोन में चला गया था। बेशक वह फिर पॉजिटिव जोन में आया है। इजाफा नाममात्र का हुआ है , लेकिन स्थिति अभी गड़बड़ है।

क्या है रास्ता ?
मौजूदा परिस्थिति में रास्ता एक ही है कि इटली को बेल आउट पैकेज दिया जाए। यूरोपियन फाइनैंशल स्टेबिलिटी फैसिलिटी ( ईएफएसएफ ) के नियमों के तहत इटली को अधिकतम 1.60 खरब यूरो का पैकेज ही दिया जा सकता है। मगर अंतरराष्ट्रीय तय नियमों के साथ। ऐसा इसलिए किया जाता है कि बेल आउट पैकेज देने का पॉजिटिव परिणाम आ सके। बेल आउट पैकेज के साथ कुछ शर्तें जुड़ी होती है। इसमें खर्चों में कटौती करना। आमदनी बढ़ाने के नए रास्ते खोजना। दूसरे देशों के साथ कारोबार बढ़ाने के लिए राहत देना ताकि मार्केट में मनी फ्लो बढ़ सके।

प्राइवेट कंपनियों के साथ नए प्रोजेक्ट करना , मगर प्राइवेट कंपनियों को छूट में कमी करना। अपने देश की कंपनियों पर अपने मार्केट में निवेश के लिए दबाव बनाना। मगर परिस्थितियां देखते हुए इटली में ऐसा करना मुश्किल लग रहा है।

भारत पर असर
अगर अमेरिका या यूरोपीय शेयर मार्केट में खलबली वाली परिस्थितियां बनीं तो शेयर मार्केट में उतार दौर भारी पड़ सकता है। कॉमोडिटी मार्केट का संतुलन बिगड़ सकता है। सोना और चांदी में फॉरेन इनवेस्टर तेजी का खेल जारी रख सकते है। वे खाद्यान्न मार्केट का स्वाद भी बिगाड़ सकता है। आयात मूल्य बढ़ने पर भारत की क्या स्थिति होगी , इसका अंदाजा लगाया जा सकता है। सबसे अहम बात कि आईटी और वित्तीय सर्विस पर नेगेटिव असर पड़ेगा। इस वक्त दोनों सेक्टरों में सबसे अधिक नौकरियां युवाओं को मिल रहे हैं।

वित्तीय सेवाओं का योगदान देश की जीडीपी में योगदान बढ़कर 52 पर्सेंट पर पहुंच गया है। इन दोनों सेक्टरों को अगर विदेशों से ऑर्डर मिलना बंद हो गया तो भारत में बिजनेस कम होगा। बिजनेस कम होगा तो यहां पर नई नौकरियों के अवसर तो कम हो जाएंगे। साथ में जो कंपनियां इन सेक्टरों में कार्यरत हैं , उनको अपने को मार्केट की अपेक्षा के अनुरूप रखना भी मुश्किल हो जाएगा। एक और अहम पक्ष है विदेशी निवेश। भारत अपने मार्केट को संवारने और प्रोजेक्टों को पूरा करने के लिये विदेशी निवेश की जरूरत है।

अगर विदेशी निवेश रुक जाएगा तो इसका असर भारत की पूरी अर्थव्यवस्था पर पड़ेगा। डीएसई के पूर्व प्रेजिडेंट बी . बी . साहनी का कहना है कि अगर भारतीय शेयर मार्केट में खलबली का माहौल बना तो इसको रोकना मुश्किल हो सकता है।

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report

Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
Asian markets trade lower; Hang Seng tumbles 4.5%
Asian stocks fell sharply on Thursday after soaring Italian borrowing costs stoked fears the debt crisis in the euro zone's third biggest economy will overwhelm its financial defences, raising the risk of a break-up of the currency area.
The euro was steady, after suffering its biggest daily drop in 15 months on Wednesday, while industrial commodities such as copper and oil softened on worries of renewed recession.
Asian credit spreads blew out as the deepening crisis in Europe sapped investor appetite for risk, while safe haven assets such as Japanese government bonds were in demand.
"Whatever they come up with, it doesn't avoid a European recession," said Su-Lin Ong, senior economist at RBC Capital Markets in Sydney.
"The question now is just how deep it will be and whether this is going to bleed over into the banking system, because that is much more significant."
At 11:08 am (IST), Asian markets were trading lower. China's Shanghai Composite fell 1.29% or 32.60 points at 2,492.32.
Japan's Nikkei was down 2.57% or 225.28 points at 8,530.16.
Singapore's Straits Times fell 2.73% or 77.92 points at 2,780.74.
South Korea's Seoul Composite slipped 3.48% or 66.47 points at 1,841.06.
Taiwan's Taiwan Weighted plunged 3.25% or 245.67 points at 7,316.19.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng tumbled 4.48% or 896.92 points at 19,117.51 as European woes were exacerbated by data showing China's exports rose at their weakest pace in 8 months in October. Europe is China's biggest export market.
Italy has for the time being replaced Greece as the biggest source of concern in Europe's two-year-old debt crisis.
Italian 10-year bond yields rose above 7 percent on Wednesday, a level most market economists consider unsustainable for financing debt of more than 2 trillion euros.
A pledge by Italy's Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi to stand down failed to reassure bond markets that Rome has the will to bring its debts under control, and moves by two major clearing houses to raise the level of collateral needed for holders of Italian debt pushed the country near breaking point.
European and U.S. stocks fell steeply on Wednesday in response, with Wall Street shares losing more than 3 percent.
TOO BIG TO BAIL
Ireland and Portugal were both forced to seek aid soon after their 10-year bond yields topped 7 percent, but a rescue for Italy would be on a different scale and Europe's bailout fund is widely considered inadequate for the task.
The European Central Bank (ECB), considered the only institution capable of repelling the bond market attacks, bought Italian bonds in substantial amounts on Wednesday, but is reluctant to go further to force down yields.
"The markets were basically in a panic yesterday and the only thing that can give the euro at least a temporary respite is quick action from the ECB to lower Italian yields," said Koji Fukaya, chief currency strategist at Credit Suisse in Tokyo.
Whilst many outside Europe are calling on the ECB to take a more active role, as other major central banks do, in acting as lender of last resort, Germany remains implacably opposed to what it views as a threat to the central bank's independence.
In a sign of the depth of fear gripping European capitals, EU sources told Reuters that French and German officials had held discussions about a euro zone split.
The single currency was steady around $1.3540 , after tumbling around 2 percent on Wednesday.
The dollar was also steady against a basket of currencies, after surging in the previous session as investors scurried for safety, while yields on 10-year Japanese government bonds fell 0.5 basis point to 0.970 percent.
In Asian credit markets, spreads widened on the Asia ex-Japan iTraxx investment grade index , a gauge of risk appetite.
Concerns about flagging demand knocked London Metal Exchange copper down 2.5 percent. U.S. crude oil fell 0.3 percent to $95.43 a barrel, while Brent crude dipped 0.1 percent to around $112.21.
(With inputs from Reuters)

Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report

Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report

Italy: Definitely too big to fail, maybe too big to bail
We may be nearing the finale of the Euro crisis that has been building for at least a year and a half.
What Italy does now, and how governments and markets respond, may determine whether we have been watching a tragedy or something less serious.
Whatever it is, it definitely has elements of both.
Italy is the domino that cannot be allowed to fall over, because it would risk knocking over too much else.
Yet it is also so large that saving it requires huge financial resources. Italy has well over $1 trillion of government debt, about 1.2 times the annual output of the whole nation.
It cannot afford to pay an interest rate of 7% or 8% without major cutbacks, so the rates now demanded by the market are unsustainable.
Official: Italy will adopt austerity measures
Either Italy and its partners in the eurozone calm the markets, or Italy is likely to eventually restructure its debt by imposing losses on the current bondowners. A big problem is that cutting the debt could impose half a trillion dollars or more of losses on other parties.
Such a level of losses would do real damage to the European financial system and both directly and indirectly on the wider economy.
Worse, an Italian default would almost surely force defaults by Spain, Portugal, and perhaps Ireland, since their access to the bond markets will dry up as justifiable fear spreads. (Why own a bond paying even 10% if you think 50% losses may soon be imposed?)
This matters because Spain is nearly as big as Italy.
Eurozone governments and the European Central Bank would be well-advised to prevent an Italian default at almost any cost (as the rest of the world has been screaming recently).

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report

Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report

Bad news won't deeply cut consolidating mkt: Experts
It was an uneventful trading day on Dalal Street today. Upbeat European markets helped the Nifty cut back losses and close trade in the green. However, key events like an emergency cabinet session in Greece, Italy PM's confidence vote and the meeting of European Union finance ministers kept traders on their toes throughout trade today. The Sensex shut shop up 6.92 points at 17,569.53 while the Nifty rose just 5.15 points to end at 5,289.35.

The next big question is if we catch up to the 5300 mark soon and analysts are extremely positive we can. Even though hiccups may arise both domestically and globally, experts say that most adverse news has already been discounted by the market. “Any fresh adverse news will be unable to push the market much below current levels,” believes Ambareesh Baliga of Way2Wealth Securities, adding that the maximum downside for the market is around 5200-5250.

Going into the peak end of the calendar year, Baliga says that the market has created a new range between 5,200 to about 5,550-5,600. However, for the month of November, he thinks 5400 will act as a resistance. “But we should be able to cross that and move towards 5,600 towards the end of the year,” he adds.

Portfolio manager PN Vijay is also of the same view. He believes that even though we are in a consolidation phase, decent news like ECB’s bond issue money falling in place and actually coming into Greece could actually trigger a big upside. “I think we have reached a stage in this market where the macros have got discounted. So I think this is a consolidating phase with a potential to go higher,” he explained on CNBC-TV18.

On a more short term view, Sudarshan Sukhani of Technical Trends.com strongly advocates identifying dips and buying into positions then. “If we don’t breakout on either side of this trading range, there is no way of saying what will happen in the near future,” he said.

Monday, November 7, 2011

Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report

Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
Asian shares fall after Greece coalition deal, Italy eyed.
Asian shares struggled and credit markets weakened on Monday, with investors still nervous despite the agreement on formation of a new Greek unity government intent on avoiding imminent debt default.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan, which traded between plus 0.3 percent and minus 0.6 percent, was down 0.2 percent. Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 0.5 percent while Hong Kong shares opened slightly higher but then slipped to be off 0.1 percent.
U.S. stock index futures reversed course and fell into negative territory after opening higher, as market players refocused on a lack of commitment to details that are crucial in making the Greek bailout program work.
Investors were also shifting their attention to another debt-burdened country, Italy, putting it under pressure to swiftly restore its credibility on financial markets.
The spreads on the iTraxx Asia ex-Japan investment grade index , a gauge of investor appetite for risk, widened by 3 basis points as equities languished.
"Credit market spreads are a bit wider, while equities are mixed, because debt issues may matter more for Europe and the credit markets are more bearish over these kinds of uncertainties," said Frances Cheung, senior strategist for Asia ex-Japan at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong.
"We'll watch out for any Italian debt auctions to see where demand is coming from," she said, questioning the ability of some euro zone countries to sustain themselves without selling their own debts.
Italy is the third largest economy in the euro zone with the biggest government bond market. With Italy's debt levels stuck at 120 percent of GDP, the country's debt problems would pose a much bigger risk to the financial markets than Greece does.
Italy's borrowing costs have been rising sharply over the past several weeks.
Italian 10-year government bond yields hit record highs of around 6.4 percent on Friday, expanding the spread of Italian 10-year yields over Bunds to a new lifetime high.
With many trading centres in Asia on holiday on Monday, including India, Malaysia, Philippines and Singapore, price actions may not necessarily be all that representative given thin volumes, analysts said.
GREEK WOES
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou and opposition leader Antonis Samaras agreed on a new coalition government to approve the bailout plan, which requires painful fiscal reform, before elections.
Papandreou and Samaras had been scrambling to reach a deal before finance ministers of euro countries meet in Brussels later on Monday, to show that Greece is serious about taking steps needed to stave off bankruptcy.
Political wrangling in Greece had sparked panic in global financial markets on fears that it would fail to save the country from defaulting and to stop the sovereign debt crisis from spreading to other countries in the euro zone.
While Greece has for now managed to stay on track to reduce its huge debt, market jitters remain over a lack of funding to beef up the bailout fund after the euro zone failed to get any concrete pledge for new money at a G20 summit on Friday.
"We believe what will matter more for markets in the near term is the relatively disappointing outcome of the G20 meeting, given the lack of progress on backstop facilities," Barclays Capital analysts said in a report.
"Any further rise in Italian yields and spreads would make us very cautious about cross-market implications for risk assets," they said.
Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said his country would welcome quarterly monitoring by the International Monetary Fund of pension and labour market reforms and privatisations he had promised to implement.
Leaders of the world's major economies deferred until next year any move to provide more crisis-fighting resources to the IMF.
SAFETY BID RETURNS
The euro fell 0.4 percent to $1.3770 against the dollar, retreating from an earlier high of $1.3837 , while the Australian dollar , which often is seen as a gauge for risk appetite given its close link to commodities, also eased 0.4 percent.
"For now, they've managed to stave off any panic, but it's not looking positive for them," said Grant Turley, strategist at ANZ in Sydney. "It feels like a low conviction, fatigued market at this point in time."
A retreat in investor appetite for riskier assets helped safe-haven government bonds, with U.S. Treasury futures down 1.5/32 at 130-06.5/32 from 130-08/32 late on Friday in New York. It was down to around 130 in early Asia on Monday.
Spot gold rose 0.7 percent to $1,766 an ounce on Monday, as uncertainties over the euro zone debt crisis renewed bids for safe-haven assets.

Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report

Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report
SILVER FUT 5 DEC 11 MCX BUY ABOVE @ 56459 TARGET 56660 57063 57710 STOP LOSS 56197 ALL MOST EVERY TARGET HAS BEEN ACHIEVED.
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SILVER FUT 5 DEC 11 MCX BUY ABOVE @ 56459 TARGET 56660 57063 57710 STOP LOSS 56197
SILVER FUT 5 DEC 11 MCX SELL BELOW @ 56197 TARGET 56137 56016 55395 STOP LOSS 56459

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Sunday, November 6, 2011

Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report

Market Future India - Free Share Market tips, Trading Tips, Today's Market Analysis Report

NEW:- NIFTY FUTURE WEEKLY TARGET 08-10-2011 TO 11-11-2011

1 NIFTY FUTURE BUY ABOVE @ 5362.1 TARGET 5407 5480 5654 STOP LOSS 5274.9
2 NIFTY FUTURE SELL BELOW @ 5274.9 TARGET 5233 5131 4956 STOP LOSS 5362.1