6 double dip warning signsThe recovery from the Great Recession has likely started. But many economists are worried about falling into another downturn. Here's what has them concerned.
Will recovery turn to recession?
Most economists agree the U.S. economy is in recovery. The question is whether it will stay that way.
The economy grew at a 3.5% annual rate in the third quarter. But even with that shot in the arm, there are plenty of worries about whether the economy could topple into another period of decline, or "double dip" recession, early next year.
These concerns have some economists calling for yet another round of economic stimulus early next year to try to jump start the still struggling labor market. The fear is that if the economy heads into another downturn, the Federal Reserve and Congress will have few, if any, tools left to address the new problems.
"If we do slide back into recession, it will be very difficult to get out," said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com.
So how can we tell if the economy is really at risk of double dipping? Here are six key economic indicators that bear watching. All have shown signs of improvement in recent months. But if they start moving in the wrong direction again, that could be bad news.
Jobs
Unemployment hit a 26-year high of 10.2% in October. Topping the 10% benchmark got a lot of attention from the public and the White House, but it wasn't the main story for economists. Instead, they look at the U.S. payrolls number, which is based on a survey of employers about how many people are on staff.
That number has steadily improved since 741,000 lost their jobs in January. But 190,000 more jobs were lost in October. That is still more than the average monthly loss during the 2001 recession.
Many economists are forecasting job growth by early 2010. But if job losses continue deep into next year, that could tip the economy back into recession. If job losses start to increase again, it would be a cause for even greater concern since that could lead to a bigger pullback in retail sales, home prices and auto purchases.
Retail sales
Retail sales have been showing signs of life in recent months. The government's seasonally adjusted retail sales reading, excluding autos, has risen in four of the last five months. Still, the National Retail Federation is forecasting that sales during the all important holiday shopping season will be down 1% from a year ago.
A better than expected Christmas season would do a lot to lift worries hanging over the economy. But with credit tight, unemployment high and consumers who have jobs saving more, some worry retail sales will disappoint. That could cause additional problems for retailers and companies that make the products they sell.
Since consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the nation's economic activity, healthy retail sales are the key to a strong rebound. "If consumers get unexpectedly scared of buying at Christmas, we could go back into recession," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's.
Oil
Few would argue that the chaos in the financial markets in the fall of 2008 helped send the economy into its worst period of decline since the Great Depression. But the oil price shock earlier that summer, which sent prices to a record high of more than $145 a barrel, may have had an even bigger impact on consumers.
However, as economic activity slowed around the globe, so did oil consumption, causing prices to plunge. So one positive byproduct of the recession for many Americans was a roughly 75% decline in oil prices that occurred between the July 2008 high and the end of last year.
Oil prices have been rising again this year though, due largely to hopes that the end of the global recession is in sight. While prices are not expected to test highs any time soon, there are forecasts that $100-a-barrel oil could return next year thanks to stronger demand.
Since many consumers have limited ability to cut the amount of gasoline they use, another oil shock would take away money they can spend on other goods and services. It can also raise costs for businesses, forcing them to cut back on investment and even staffing.
Autos
Few industries were hit harder by the recession than the auto industry. Some of the strongest companies, such as Toyota, lost money. Two of the industry's weakest players -- GM and Chrysler -- were forced into bankruptcy.
Auto sales have gotten better in recent months. Sales were essentially flat in October -- an encouraging sign since sales were not artificially boosted that month by the government's Cash for Clunkers program. Automakers are even ramping up production in the fourth quarter to replenish decreased supplies at dealerships.
Most forecasts are for modest improvement in sales across the industry in 2010. But that's contingent on an economic recovery taking hold. If job losses continue to mount and credit stays tight, the industry could be in for another year of weak sales and widespread losses. And that would likely mean more plant closings and layoffs, which in itself would be another blow to the overall economy.
Housing
The underlying cause of the Great Recession was a bursting of the housing bubble back in 2007. Home prices plunged, sparking significant financial losses that shook the globe's major financial institutions as well as the wealth of individual Americans. That's why a pickup in home sales and rising housing prices are critical for an economic recovery.
Fortunately, sales have steadily improved throughout much of this year and it appears that home prices may have finally hit bottom. Yet, some argue that housing prices remain too high in relation to income, suggesting there is still room for prices to decline. A federal tax credit for buyers and lower mortgage rates may also be helping the market -- and neither is certain to continue.
There are also worries about a so-called shadow inventory of homes that have gone into foreclosure that have yet to hit the market. Once they do, that could put further downward pressure on prices. That's why many think the housing market is still in a fragile state. And if the improvement in housing proves to be short-lived, so will the broader economic recovery.
Stocks
The stock market is often said to be a leading indicator of the economy, meaning that stocks move higher ahead of any upturn in the economy as investors bet on better times ahead.
Major U.S. stock indexes have had a strong run since hitting a low in March, recapturing much of the decline sparked by last fall's financial crisis. Still, stocks are well below their pre-recession levels.
There are plenty of market experts who worry that prices have gotten too far ahead of actual improvement in corporate sales and earnings. A market correction probably wouldn't raise fears of another recession. But a new bear market, with prices falling about 20% from current levels, would be another shock to the financial system that could cause broader problems for a still vulnerable economy.
"Post bubble credit collapses are generally fraught with fragility and general economic weakness," said David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist for investment bank Gluskin Sheff. "I don't believe you can destroy trillions of dollars of wealth and believe we're back to normal."
By CNN MONEY.COM
