टेक्निकल क्लासरूम

तकनीकी विश्लेषण क्या है?

तकनीकी विश्लेषण का मतलब होता है शेयर के भाव के चार्ट्स की समीक्षा करके भविष्य के उतार-चढ़ाव की जानकारी पता करना। यह समझना जरूरी है कि तकनीकी विश्लेषण पूरी तरह से शेयर की कीमतों पर आधारित होता है। कंपनी की मूलभूत जानकारियों, जैसे मुनाफा, बिक्री, कर्ज, का इस्तेमाल तकनीकी विश्लेषण में नहीं किया जाता है। साथ ही, विश्लेषण करते समय माना जाता है कि बाजार से जुड़ी और दूसरी सभी जानकारी उपलब्ध हैं और उनका इस्तेमाल शेयर का चार्ट बनाते वक्त किया गया है।

तकनीकी विश्लेषण का मुख्य सिद्धांत है कि शेयर बाजार पूरी तरह से पारदर्शीय है और बाजार के सभी प्रतिभागी कुशल हैं। बिना किसी ठोस कारण के शेयरों की खरीद-फरोख्त तकनीकी विश्लेषण सिद्धांतों के खिलाफ है। फंडामेंटल विश्लेषण के मुकाबले तकनीकी विश्लेषण में ज्यादा लचीलापन है। फंडामेंटल विश्लेषण शेयरों के उतार-चढ़ाव को जानने के लिए तिमाही नतीजों, आय पर गाइडेंस और कंपनी नीतियों में बदलाव पर निर्भर करता है।


अगर ये माना जाए कि फंडामेंटल विश्लेषण ही शेयरों के उतार-चढ़ाव की सही तौर पर बता सकता है, तो ऐसे में शेयरों की कीमतों में साल में 4-5 बार ही बदलाव दिखना चाहिए। लेकिन, ऐसा नहीं होता है। शेयरों के भाव रोजाना बढ़ते-घटते हैं। इस उतार-चढ़ाव के बारे में तकनीकी विश्लेषण से ही पता किया जा सकता है।

रिलेटिव स्ट्रेंथ कंपैरेटिव क्या है?

तकनीकी विश्लेषण से हम किसी भी शेयर की रिलेटिव स्ट्रेंथ कंपैरेटिव (आरएससी) पता लगा सकते हैं। रिलेटिव स्ट्रेंथ कंपैरेटिव का मतलब है शेयर के उतार-चढ़ाव की किसी सूचकांक, दूसरी कंपनी के शेयर या फिर सेक्टर से तुलना कर सकते हैं।

किसी शेयर के पिछले प्रदर्शन को जानने के लिए आरएससी का इस्तेमाल किया जा सकता है। आरएससी के नतीजों से आप जान पाएंगे कि शेयर में निवेश करना फायदेमंद रहेगा या नहीं।

जिन शेयरों में सूचकांकों से ज्यादा उतार-चढ़ाव दिखता है जरूरी नहीं है कि शेयर किसी एक दिशा में कारोबार करे। जिन शेयर का आरएससी कोअफिशन्ट ज्यादा होता है, वो शेयर सूचकांक से ज्यादा चढ़ते हैं। लेकिन, सूचकांकों के मुकाबले इन शेयरों में धीमी गिरावट दिखती है।

ऐसे शेयरों में निवेश करने से ज्यादा से ज्यादा मुनाफा कमाया जा सकता है।

कंटिन्यूएशन और रिवर्सल पैटर्न क्या होते हैं?

कंटिन्यूएशन पैटर्न की मदद से बढ़त वाले शेयरों के बारे में पता चलता है और शेयर की आगामी कीमत बताई जा सकती है। वहीं, रिवर्सल पैटर्न से कमजोरी वाले शेयरों के बारे में पता जा सकता है और उनकी कीमत का अंदाजा लगाया जा सकता है।

रिवर्सल पैटर्न से पता चल सकता है कि शेयर बाजार में तेजी जारी रहेगी या फिर गिरावट का सिलसिला शुरू होने वाला है।


चैनल, सूचकांक और ट्रेंडलाइंस कंटिन्यूएशन पैटर्न का हिस्सा होते हैं। रिवर्सल पैटर्न में आयलैंड रिवर्सल, मूविंग एवरेज क्रॉसओवर और हेड-शोल्डर फॉर्मेशन (शेयरों के वॉल्यूम में उतार-चढ़ाव का पैटर्न) शामिल होते हैं।

moneycontrol.com

Nifty may slip to 5354-5322: Angel Broking

According to a report by Angel Broking, if Nifty trades below 5405 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 5354-5322 levels.

Angel Broking report:

The trend deciding level for the day is 18,078/5,405 levels. If Niftytrades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 18,185–18,376/5,438–5,489 levels. However, if Nifty trades below 18,078/5,405 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 17,887–17,780/5,354–5,322 levels.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on moneycontrol.com are their own, and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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Infosys appoints K. V. Kamath as chairman; Shibulal to be CEO

In a major top-level management restructuring, India's second largest software firm Infosys on Saturday named veteran banker K. V. Kamath as the new chairman to succeed founder N. R. Narayana Murthy, who retires in August.

The over USD 6-billion Infosys Technologies has also appointed current CEO S. Gopalakrishnan as the Executive co-Chairman and promoted COO S. D. Shibulal as CEO and MD.

Murthy, who turns 65 in August, would become Chairman Emeritus.

These appointments, effective August 21, 2011 were approved at the company's board meeting held here on Saturday.

Kamath, 63, is currently an independent director on the board of Infosys. He is the non-Executive Chairman of ICICI Bank, the country's largest private lender.

"I am very very pleased with (all) these appointments," Murthy told reporters after the board meeting.

"Kamath, Kris and Shibu will make an ideal team. I am grateful to the company for appointing me as Chairman Emeritus and providing me an opportunity to add value to the board...," he said.

Banker to now run Infy

Who is K V Kamath?

IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end Commentary: China’s economy will surpass the U.S. in 2016

For the first time, the international organization has set a date for the moment when the “Age of America” will end and the U.S. economy will be overtaken by that of China.

The Obama deficit tour

The Wall Street Journal’s Steve Moore critiques the president's speeches attacking Republican budget plans.

And it’s a lot closer than you may think.

According to the latest IMF official forecasts, China’s economy will surpass that of America in real terms in 2016 — just five years from now.

Put that in your calendar.

It provides a painful context for the budget wrangling taking place in Washington, D.C., right now. It raises enormous questions about what the international security system is going to look like in just a handful of years. And it casts a deepening cloud over both the U.S. dollar and the giant Treasury market, which have been propped up for decades by their privileged status as the liabilities of the world’s hegemonic power.

According to the IMF forecast, whoever is elected U.S. president next year — Obama? Mitt Romney? Donald Trump? — will be the last to preside over the world’s largest economy.

Most people aren’t prepared for this. They aren’t even aware it’s that close. Listen to experts of various stripes and they will tell you this moment is decades away. The most bearish will put the figure in the mid-2020s.

But they’re miscounting. They’re only comparing the gross domestic products of the two countries using current exchange rates.

That’s a largely meaningless comparison in real terms. Exchange rates change quickly. And China’s exchange rates are phony. China artificially undervalues its currency, the renminbi, through massive intervention in the markets.

The comparison that really matters

The IMF in its analysis looks beyond exchange rates to the true, real terms picture of the economies using “purchasing power parities.” That compares what people earn and spend in real terms in their domestic economies.

Under PPP, the Chinese economy will expand from $11.2 trillion this year to $19 trillion in 2016. Meanwhile the U.S. economy will rise from $15.2 trillion to $18.8 trillion. That would take America’s share of the world output down to 17.7%, the lowest in modern times. China’s would reach 18%, and is rising.

Just 10 years ago, the U.S. economy was three times the size of China’s.

Naturally, all forecasts are fallible. Time and chance happen to them all. The actual date when China surpasses the U.S. might come even earlier than the IMF predicts, or somewhat later. If the great Chinese juggernaut blows a tire, as a growing number fear it might, it could even delay things by several years. But the outcome is scarcely in doubt.

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India gold, silver seen hitting new peak

MUMBAI (Reuters) - India's gold futures are likely to recover from their previous session's losses on Thursday following a similar trend in overseas markets, although a rising rupee could limit the upside, analysts said.

The most-traded gold for June delivery on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) closed 0.23 percent lower at 21,773 rupees per 10 grams, falling from a record high of 21,893 rupees.

"We can be on the buying side in gold. Gold may trade in the range 21,720-21,900," said Aurobinda Prasad, head of research, Karvy Comtrade.

Bullion overseas powered to a lifetime high for a fifth consecutive session on Thursday on a sharply weaker dollar, while lingering tensions in the Arab World, worries about the euro zone crisis and U.S. fiscal health offered additional support.

The rupee plays an important role in determining the landed cost of the dollar-quoted yellow metal.

Silver futures , which struck a new record of 66,664 rupees in the previous session, could also extend gains to hit another peak. The May contract ended at 65,644 rupees per kg, up 1.6 percent on Wednesday.

COPPER:

India copper futures are likely to ease from their highest level in the week, following similar trend overseas, coupled with a strong rupee, analysts said.

The most-active copper for April delivery on the MCX closed 1.4 percent higher at 424.45 rupees per kg, after hitting an intra-day high of 426.50 rupees, a level last seen on April 13.

Copper may trade in the range of 422-428 rupees, said Prasad.

Three-month London copper was trading 0.31 percent lower at $9,540 a tonne at 8:55 a.m.

The rupee plays an important role in determining the landed cost of the red metal, which is quoted in dollars.

(Reporting by Siddesh Mayenkar; Editing by Rajesh Pandathil)

• sg.news.yahoo

Silver futures at record Rs 70,462/kg

Silver prices surged by Rs 1,450 to hit a new high of Rs 70,462 per kg in futures trade on Thursday as speculators enlarged their positions on the back of a surging global trend.

At the Multi Commodity Exchange, silver for delivery in December jumped by Rs 1,450, or 2.10 per cent to Rs 70,462 per kg, with a business turnover of four lots.

Similarly, the white metal for delivery in May moved up by Rs 1,591, or 2.42 per cent to Rs 67,235 per kg, with a business volume of five lots.

Analysts said surging global trend and increased buying by speculators, mainly pushed the silver futures prices up to hit a record high.

Meanwhile, the white metal gained 1.5 per cent to USD 45.95 an ounce in Asian region

indianexpress.com